Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 February 2026
This chapter concludes by applying the hierarchical intervention theory to the Ukraine war, initiated by the 2014 internal upheaval that established a pro-Western government in Kyiv. This shift prompted Russia’s offensive intervention, leading to the annexation of Crimea and support for Donbas separatists, actions that were justified through rogue altercasting. In response, the US and its allies opted for indirect military support to avoid escalating the conflict. The analysis provides further support for our contention that great power interventions often deviate from ideological expectations. The chapter concludes that neither objective evidence of atrocities nor ideological ties are the main drivers of intervention. Instead, prior weapons transfers and other security ties constrain and motivate great power intervention responses to revolutionary civil wars. As the global power landscape shifts toward multipolarity, Western powers risk overcommitment and moral hazard by continuing to sell weapons to clients that they are not prepared to defend. This chapter advocates for greater oversight of weapons transfers and more transparent conflict prevention strategies, thorough legislative reviews of arms transfers and clear delineation of great power spheres of influence.
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