Hostname: page-component-7b7567c8c-wxvwp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-11-15T04:08:41.602Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Information Asymmetries and Simultaneous versus Sequential Voting

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Rebecca B. Morton and
Kenneth C. Williams
Rebecca B. Morton
Affiliation:
University of Iowa
Kenneth C. Williams
Affiliation:
Michigan State University
Get accessRights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Sequential voting takes place when some voters make choices with knowledge of earlier decisions in the same election. Historically, voting in U.S. presidential primaries is sequential, but recent primaries have been “front-loaded” into the early weeks of the season. We explore sequential voting in drawn-out primaries and simultaneous voting in front-loaded ones theoretically and use laboratory elections to examine our predictions empirically. We find evidence that in sequential voting later voters can use early outcomes to infer information about candidates and make choices that better reflect their preferences. The ability of later voters to infer information increases with higher levels of risk aversion and information provided on early outcomes. We discover that when a moderate candidate is largely unknown, information aggregation in sequential voting can increase the probability s/he will win, which supports the contention of policymakers that sequential voting can lead to different electoral outcomes.

Information

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 93 , Issue 1 , March 1999, pp. 51 - 67
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1999

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

REFERENCES

Bartels, Larry M. 1988. Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Brady, Henry E. 1996. “Strategy, and Momentum in Presidential Primaries.” In Political Analysis, Volume 5, ed. Freeman, John R.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pp. 1–38.Google Scholar
Condorcet, Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas Caritat. 1785. Essai sur l'application de l'analyse a la probabilite des decisions rendues la pluralite des voix. Paris: l'Imprimerie Royale.Google Scholar
Cook, Rhodes. 1997. “CQ Roundtable: GOP Wants a Revamp of Primary Process.” Congressional Quarterly, 08 9, p. 1942.Google Scholar
Cooper, Alexandra, and Munger, Michael C.. 1996. “The (Un)Predictability of Presidential Primaries with Many Candidates: Some Simulation Evidence.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA. Typescript.Google Scholar
Dekel, Eddie, and Piccione, Michele. 1997. “The Equivalence of Simultaneous and Sequential Binary Elections.” Working paper. Department of Economics, Northwestern University.Google Scholar
Fey, Mark. 1996. “Informational Cascades, Sequential Elections, and Presidential Primaries.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA. Typescript.Google Scholar
Fey, Mark. 1997. “Stability and Coordination in Duverger's Law: A Formal Model of Preelection Polls and Strategic Voting.” American Political Science Review 91(03):135–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Filer, John, Kenny, Lawrence, and Morton, Rebecca. 1993. “Redistribution, Income, and Voting.” American Journal of Political Science 37(02):63–87 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKelvey, Richard D., and Ordeshook, Peter C.. 1985. “Elections with Limited Information: A Fulfilled Expectations Model Using Contemporaneous Poll and Endorsement Data as Information Sources.” Journal of Economic Theory 36(1):55–85 Google Scholar
Morton, Rebecca B., and Williams, Kenneth C.. 1998. “Learning by Voting: Frontloading versus Representatives in Presidential Primaries.” Department of Political Science, University of Iowa. Typescript.Google Scholar
Myerson, Roger B., and Weber, Robert J.. 1993. “A Theory of Voting Equilibria.” American Political Science Review 87(03):102–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Palmer, Niall. 1997. The New Hampshire Primary and the American Electoral Process. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
Paolino, Philip. 1996. “Perceptions of Candidate Viability: Media Effects during the Presidential Nomination Process.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA. Typescript.Google Scholar
Patterson, Thomas E. 1980. The Mass Media Election: How Americans Choose Their President. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Republican National Committee. 1996. “2/27/96 Nicholson to Chair National GOP Task Force on Presidential Primary Schedule.” Press release.Google Scholar
Robinson, Michael J., and Sheehan, Margaret. 1983. Over the Wire and on TV: CBS and UPI in Campaign 80. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Schneider, William. 1997. “And Now the GOP Is Rewriting Its Rules.” National Journal 29(04 12):734.Google Scholar
Sloth, Birgitte. 1993. “The Theory of Voting and Equilibria in Non-Cooperative Games.” Games and Economic Behavior 5(1): 152–69.Google Scholar
Strumpf, Koleman. 1996. “Sequential Election Contests: Strategic Effects Oppose Momentum in Presidential Primaries.” Working paper. Department of Economics, University of North Carolina.Google Scholar
Witt, Jorgen. 1997. “Herding Behavior in a Roll-Call Voting Game.” Working paper. Department of Economics, University of Amsterdam.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.