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Judgment under uncertainty: Evolution may not favor a probabilistic calculus
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 February 2010
Abstract
The environment in which humans evolved is strongly and positively autocorrelated in space and time. Probabilistic judgments based on the assumption of independence may not yield evolutionarily adaptive behavior. A number of “faults” of human reasoning are not faulty under fuzzy arithmetic, a nonprobabilistic calculus of reasoning under uncertainty that may be closer to that underlying human decision making.
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