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The base rate controversy: Is the glass half-full or half-empty?
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 February 2010
Abstract
Setting the two hypotheses of complete neglect and full use of base rates against each other is inappropriate. The proper question concerns the degree to which base rates are used (or neglected), and under what conditions. We outline alternative approaches and recommend regression analysis. Koehler's conclusion that we have been oversold on the base rate fallacy seems to be premature.
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