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Conservatism revisited: Base rates, prior probabilities, and averaging strategies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Nancy Paule Melone and
Timothy W. McGuire
Nancy Paule Melone
Affiliation:
Charles H. Lundquist College of Business, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1280. nmelone@oregon.uoregon.edu
Timothy W. McGuire
Affiliation:
Charles H. Lundquist College of Business, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1280. nmelone@oregon.uoregon.edu
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Abstract

Consistent with Koehler's position, we propose a generalization of the base rate fallacy and earlier conservatism literatures. In studies using both traditional tasks and new tasks based on ecologically valid base rates, our subjects typically underweight individuating information at least as much as they underweight base rates. The implications of cue consistency for averaging heuristics are discussed.

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Open Peer Commentary
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996, pp. 36 - 37
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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