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Critical and natural sensitivity to base rates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Gernot D. Kleiter
Gernot D. Kleiter
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria. kleiter@edvz.sbg.ac.at
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Abstract

This commentary discusses three points: (1) The implications of the fact that it is rational to ignore base rates if probabilities are estimated by frequencies from samples without missing data (natural sampling); (2) second order probabilities distributions are a plausible way to model imprecise probabilities; and (3) Bayesian networks represent a normative reference for multi-cue models of probabilistic inference.

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Open Peer Commentary
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996, pp. 27 - 29
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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