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P(D/H), P(D/˜H), and base rate consideration

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Yechiel Klar
Yechiel Klar
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, 689978 Israel. yklar@freud.tau.ac.il
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Abstract

Failure to consider base rate is regarded as potentially hazardous, mainly because its consideration is assumed to be determined solely by P(H/D), the probability of the individuating data if the hypothesis is true, and not at all by P(D/˜H), the probability if the hypothesis is false. However, when P(D/˜H) is unconfounded from P(D/H), it turns out to be the stronger determinant of base rate consideration.

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Open Peer Commentary
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996, pp. 26 - 27
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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