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Physicians neglect base rates, and it matters

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Robert M. Hamm
Robert M. Hamm
Affiliation:
Clinical Decision Making Program, Department of Family Medicine, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, OK 73190. rob-hamm@uokhsc.edu
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Abstract

A recent study showed physicians' reasoning about a realistic case to be ignorant of base rate. It also showed physicians interpreting information pertinent to base rate differently, depending on whether it was presented early or late in the case. Although these adult reasoners might do better if given hints through talk of relative frequencies, this would not prove that they had no problem of base rate neglect.

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Open Peer Commentary
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996, pp. 25 - 26
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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