1. A good example of this widespread genre is the latest World Bank review of the Chinese economy: The World Bank, China 2020: The Development Challenges in the New Century (Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1997).Google Scholar

2. For details on this inertia and on gradual transitions see: Cesare, Marchetti and Nebojsa, Nakicenovic, The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model (Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1979)Google Scholar; Vaclav, Smil, General Energetics (New York: John Wiley, 1991).Google Scholar

3. Most notably, when expressed in constant monies, the average world crude oil price in the late 1990s is no higher than it was a century ago. See: British Petroleum, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 1997 (London: British Petroleum, 1997), p. 14.Google Scholar

4. A resource category comprises the total mass of a particular commodity present in the earth's crust, regardless of technical means to recover it or the economic viability doing so. While total resources can only be estimated, reserves are the accurately known fraction of resources which can be recovered at a known cost using commercial techniques. A combination of technical innovation and higher prices constantly creates reserves out of resources.Google Scholar

5. The best hard (black, bituminous) coals have a heating content of between 27–29 megajoules (MJ) per kilogram (MJ/kg), typical steam coals used in electricity generation produce around 22 MJ/kg, with the poorest lignites (brown coals) being below 15 MJ/kg. Most of China's coal resources have an energy density of between 22 and 29 MJ/kg. For more details see: Vaclav, Smil, Energy in China's Modernization (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1988), pp. 31–35.Google Scholar

6. Mistakenly, this reserve/production (R/P) ratio is often taken as an indicator of the time when a country, or the world, will run out of a particular mineral. This would be the case only for the resource/production ratio, a quotient we cannot reliably calculate because of the uncertain nature of the numerator. Higher prices and better techniques can raise R/P ratios quite rapidly: for example, the global R/P ratio for crude oil was well below 30 during the time of low oil prices in the early 1970s – but recently it has risen above 40, higher than at any time since 1945. For the latest estimates of coal reserves, and coal R/P ratios see: British Petroleum, BP Statistical Review, p. 30.

7. Ibid.. p. 4.

8. Ibid.. p. 20.

9. Crude oil contains 42 MJ/kg, one cubic metre (m³) of natural gas averages around 35 MJ with a mass of about 720 grams (g); consequently, the energy density of natural gas is nearly 49 MJ/kg.Google Scholar

10. This is a particularly important concern for China, the world's largest producer of nitrogenous fertilizers. The synthesis of ammonia requires about 50 MJ of natural gas per kilogram of nitrogen, and China has recently been using almost 30% of its total natural gas production for ammonia synthesis.Google Scholar

11. For example, burning typical heating coal (with an energy content of 22 MJ/kg and carbon comprising 70% of the mass) in a fairly efficient (35%) stove will release about 90g of carbon (C) for every MJ of useful energy; in contrast, burning natural gas (75% C) in a high-performance (90% efficient) household gas furnace will release a mere 17g C/MJ.Google Scholar

12. China's total of about 380 billion watts (GW) of exploitable power is well ahead of potential capacities in Russia, Brazil and the U.S., but the more even flow of the great Siberian rivers could eventually generate more electricity.Google Scholar

13. Capital costs per unit of installed generating capacity are commonly only half as much in coal-fired stations. High-voltage direct-current links are the best way to minimize transmission losses.Google Scholar

14. For comparison, coal holds roughly a 25% share of U.S. primary energy consumption while it supplies 20% of both Russia's and Japan's commercial energy.Google Scholar

15. Because of many readily available statistical sources I will not ref0erence individual output numbers. Standard Chinese sources are State Statistical Bureau, Zhongguo tongji nianjian (Chinese Statistical Yearbook) (Beijing: China Statistics Publishing, annually), and Ministry of Energy, Zhongguo nengyuan (China's Energy Sources), containing monthly production statistics. By far the most comprehensive source in English is:Google ScholarSinton, Jonathan E. (ed.), China Energy Databook (Berkeley: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1996).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

16. For a review of recent reforms of the industry see: Elspeth, Thomson, “reforming China's coal industry,” The China Quarterly, No. 147 (1996), pp. 727–750.Google Scholar

17. Eventual combined capacity of these mines was to surpass 200 Mt/year. Shanxi's Pingshuo (Antaibao) mine involved a much-publicized personal deal between Armand Hammer, the late CEO of Occidental Petroleum, and Deng Xiaoping.Google Scholar

18. The worst accidents in large mines are caused by coal dust explosions resulting from inadequate ventilation and poor safety practices. According to the Public Works Ministry, 9,974 people died in mining accidents in 1996. With coal mining accounting for about two-thirds of all deaths, Chinese fatalities average about 5.0 deaths/Mt of coal, compared to 0.15/Mt in the U.S.Google Scholar

19. In contrast, basic coal cleaning, involving washing and sizing, is standard in Western mining; some coal also undergoes specialized cleaning aimed at reducing coal's sulphur content in order to meet air emission standards.Google Scholar

20. Besides reducing biodiversity, deforestation contributes to higher erosion rates and straw burning deprives soils of nitrogen which would otherwise be recycled. For discussion of the extent and implications of these problems see: Vaclav, Smil, China's Environmental Crisis (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993).Google Scholar

21. Published estimates of local mine fatalities have ranged between 8.5–23 per million tonnes of extracted coal. Rates above 20 would clearly make this one of the riskiest occupations anywhere in the world.Google Scholar

22. Wei, Hu and Robert, Evans, “The impacts of coal mining in Shenmu county, the Loess Plateau, China,” Ambio, Vol. 26, No. 6 (1997), pp. 405–406.Google Scholar

23. The capital's mean annual total suspended particulate levels are between 400–500 μg/m³ – while the WHO's daily maximum of 150–230μg/m³ can be exceeded on only seven days (2%) each year.Google Scholar

24. Dai, Hewu and Chen, Wenmin, “Characterization and utilization of Chinese high-sulphur coal,” Meitan kexue jishu (Coal Science and Technology), No. 5 (1989), pp. 30–35.Google Scholar

25. Mao, Yushi and Li, Dazheng, Spontaneous Combustion of Coal in China and its Environmental Impact (Beijing: China Institute of Mining Technology, 1994).Google Scholar

26. Vaclav, Smil, Environmental Problems in China: Estimates of Economic Costs (Honolulu: East-West Center, 1996), pp. 19–20.Google Scholar

27. Desulphurization increases both capital and operating costs by at least 20%. Japanese aid offers a perfect opportunity to channel a sizeable amount of money through the country's large chemical companies which produce and install modern flue gas desulphurization plants.Google Scholar

28. Smil, , China's Environmental Crisis, p. 116.Google Scholar

29. “SPC hikes natural gas price,” China OGP, No. 5 (15 05 1997), p. 10.Google Scholar

30. For details see: Smil, , Energy in China's Modernization, pp. 162–171.Google Scholar

31. China, OGP, China Petroleum Investment Guide (Beijing: China OGP, 1994), pp. 91–140.Google Scholar

32. Chinese imports will help to bring closer the date when OPEC is once again the supplier of the last resort – and when the world will have to pay higher crude oil prices. Will China's greater involvement in Middle Eastern affairs be a stabilizing or destabilizing influence? Plausible arguments can be made for both outcomes.Google Scholar

33. Xihe, Yu, “Oil security risk, wolf at door?” China OGP, No. 10 (15 May 1997), pp. 1–3. As oil imports rise, China will also have to build sufficient storage capacity (generally, this should equal 25% of annual imports).Google Scholar

34. The Kazakh deal would involve not only a 3,000-kilometre pipeline to move some 8 Mt of crude a year to Xinjiang, but perhaps also transhipment through Iran. Detailed discussion of large-scale international oil and gas projects involving Russia, China, Korea and Japan can be found in Keun-Wook, Paik, Gas and Oil in Northeast Asia (London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1995).Google Scholar

35. China News Digest, 10 04 1997 (http://www.cnd.org).Google Scholar

36. Institute of Techno-economics and Energy System Analysis, Global Electrification: The Next Decades (Beijing: Qinghua University, 1997), pp. 1–3.Google Scholar

37. Ibid..

38. For comparison, Itaipu, currently the world's largest hydro project on the Parana between Brazil and Paraguay has 12.6 GW, and Grand Coulee, the largest U.S. hydro station, rates 6.8 GW.Google Scholar

39. For detailed analyses of what is wrong with Sanxia, see: Grainne, Ryder (ed.), Damming the Three Gorges (Toronto: Probe International, 1990)Google Scholar; Dai, Qing, Yangtze! Yangtze! (London: Earthscan, 1994).Google Scholar

40. China News Digest, 8 04 1996 (http://www.cnd.org).Google Scholar

41. China's long-term hydrogeneration plans are outlined in Smil, , Energy in China's Modernization, pp. 171–180.Google Scholar

42. China News Digest, 16 10 1996 (http://www.cnd.org).Google Scholar

43. Sales of Russian nuclear power plants to China are particularly uncertain.Google Scholar

44. This represents about 40% of total foreign direct investment received by China to the end of 1995: The World Bank, China 2020, p. 90.Google Scholar

45. For problems with determining and comparing China's energy intensity, see Smil, , China's Environmental Crisis, pp. 72–75 and 126–28.Google Scholar

46. Vaclav, Smil, “China's environment and security: simple myths and complex realities,” SAIS Review, Vol. 17 (Winter-Spring 1997), pp. 107–126.Google Scholar

47. Lin demonstrated that energy conservation measures rather than structural changes were the leading cause of post-1980 efficiency gains: Xiannuan, Lin, China's Energy Strategy: Economic Structure, Technological Choices, and Energy Consumption (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1996).Google Scholar

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50. The gap is even wider for average annual electricity use: China's 1995 rate of about 800 kWh/capita was only a tenth of the Japanese mean, and only 10% of that low total was accounted for by household use.Google Scholar

51. Vaclav, Smil, “Elusive links: energy, value, economic growth and quality of life,” OPEC Review, Vol. 16, No. 1 (Spring 1992), pp. 1–21.Google Scholar

52. Vaclav, Smil, “China's greenhouse gas emissions,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 4, No. 4 (1994), pp. 279–286.Google Scholar

53. Although China strongly objects to the imposition of binding obligations on developing countries, it is now prepared to make (unspecified) efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: China News Digest, 5 11 1997 (http://www.cnd.org).Google Scholar

54. The effects of ozone on China's food production capacity may be the most worrisome long-term problem: Vaclav, Smil, Energy and the Environment: Challenges for the Pacific Rim (Vancouver: Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, 1996).Google Scholar

55. This unwise goal would eventually mean between 300–400 million vehicles – compared to about 500 million cars registered world-wide in 1995: American Automobile Manufacturers Association, Motor Vehicle 1996 Facts and Figures (Detroit: AAMA, 1996), p. 44. Even if the average fuel consumption of Chinese cars could be just half the current U.S. mean, China would need about 300 Mt of petrol a year, roughly twice as much as its current annual crude oil consumption.Google Scholar

56. For basic numbers see Smil, , China's Environmental Crisis, pp. 101–110.Google Scholar

57. Smith, Kirk R. et al. “One hundred million improved cookstoves in China: how was it done?” World Development, Vol. 21 (1993), pp. 941–961.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

58. For details on these programmes see: Smil, , Energy in China's Modernization, pp. 54–69.Google Scholar