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Population Growth: Evidence and Interpretation1

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 February 2009

John S. Aird
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Extract

A quarterof the human race resides hi Communist China, the largest population under a single authority in the world, and it has been growing. No one is likely to quarrel with that statement. But there are differences of opinion over just how large the population of China is and how rapid its rate of growth. This article will not attempt to review the technical aspects of these differences or to set one view against another, but will try to indicate what the range of opinion is, how the differences arise, why they cannot presently be resolved, and what they mean for those who wish to use Chinese population data.

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Type
Population Problems
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 7 , September 1961 , pp. 44 - 56
Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 1961

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References

2 “Ying-kai jen-chen tso hap jen-k'ou tiao-ch'a teng-chi te fu-ch'a kung-tso” (“Do a Good Job of Rechecking Population Investigation and Registration Work”), Jen-min Jih-pao (People's Daily), 09 28, 1953.Google Scholar

3 Ibid.

4 “Regulations of the People's Republic of China Governing Household Registration,” New China News Agency (NCNA), Peking, January 9, 1958, translated in Survey of China Mainland Press (Hong Kong: U.S. Consulate-General), No. 1695, p. 4.Google Scholar

5 Aird, John S., The Size, Composition and Growth of the Population of Mainland China (Washington: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1961)Google Scholar, International Population Statistics Reports, Series P-90, No. 15, Chapter III.

6 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Future Population Estimates by Sex and Age. Report IV: The Population of Asia and the Far East, 1950–1980 (New York, 1959), Population Studies No. 31, pp. 24–29, 76–89.Google Scholar

7 Ping-ti, Ho, Studies on the Population of China, 1368–1953 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1959), pp. 87–97.Google Scholar

8 Orleans, Leo A., Professional Manpower and Education in Communist China (Washington: National Science Foundation, 1960), pp. 147–158; Aird, op. cit., Chapter VI.Google Scholar

9 Taeuber, Irene B. and Wang, Nai-chi, “Questions on Population Growth in China,” in Population Trends in Eastern Europe, the U.S.S.R., and Mainland China (New York: Milbank Memorial Fund, 1960), pp. 263–310.Google Scholar

10 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, op. cit., pp. 25–26; Aird, loc. cit.

11 “Data on China's Population from 1949 to 1956,” T'ung-chi Kung-tso (TCKT) (Statistical Work), No. 11, 06 14, 1957Google Scholar, translated in Extracts from China Main land Magazines (Hong Kong: U.S. Consulate-General), No. 91, pp. 23–24Google Scholar; Chandrasekhar, S., China's Population: Census and Vital Statistics (Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press, 1959), p. 50.Google Scholar

12 Hsüeh spoke of making progress in census work during “the second nationwide population census,” but he mentioned no date. See Mu-ch'iao, Hsüeh, “Ti-i-ko wu-nien chi-hua ch'i-chien wo kuo t'ung-chi kung-tso te ch'u-pu ching-yen ho chin-hou jen-wu”Google Scholar (“Our Initial Experiences in Statistical Work During the First Five-Year Plan Period and Future Tasks”), TCKT, No. 21, November 14, 1957, p. 21. Ch'en Ta had suggested that the next census be taken in 1960, Ma Yin-ch'u urged that it take place in 1958 or “at the latest” in 1963. See “Wei-le pang-chu kup-chia t'ung-chi-chü cheng-feng Hsüeh Mu-ch'iao chü-chang yao-ch'ing Ching Chin pu-fen ching-chi-hsüeh t'ung-chi-hsueh chiao-shou chu-hsing tso-t'an-hui” (“Director of the State Statistical Bureau, Hsüeh Mu-ch'iao, Invites Professors of Economics and Statistics in Peking and Tientsin to a Symposium to Help in the Rectification of the State Statistical Bureau”), TCKT, No. 12, June 29, 1957, p. 2, and Yin-ch'u, Ma, “A New Theory of Population,” Jen-min Jih-pao (People's Daily), 07 5, 1957Google Scholar; translated in Current Background (Hong Kong: U.S. Consulate-General), No. 469, 07 25, 1957, p. 13.Google Scholar

13 State Statistical Bureau, Ten Great Years: Statistics of the Economic and Cultural Achievements of the People's Republic of China (Peking: Foreign Languages Press, 1960), pp. 11–13.Google Scholar