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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 01 September 1998
The aim of this study was to test whether individual risk factors as well as the number of riskfactors (cumulative risk) predicted children's externalizing behaviors over middlechildhood. A sample of 466 European American and 100 African American boys and girls froma broad range of socioeconomic levels was followed from age 5 to 10 years. Twenty riskvariables from four domains (child, sociocultural, parenting, and peer-related) were measuredusing in-home interviews at the beginning of the study, and annual assessments of externalizingbehaviors were conducted. Consistent with past research, individual differences in externalizingbehavior problems were stable over time and were related to individual risk factors as well as thenumber of risk factors present. Particular risks accounted for 36% to 45% of the variance, and thenumber of risks present (cumulative risk status) accounted for 19% to 32% of the variance, inexternalizing outcomes. Cumulative risk was related to subsequent externalizing even after initiallevels of externalizing had been statistically controlled. All four domains of risk variables madesignificant unique contributions to this statistical prediction, and there were multiple clusters ofrisks that led to similar outcomes. There was also evidence that this prediction was moderated byethnic group status, most of the prediction of externalizing being found for European Americanchildren. However, this moderation effect varied depending on the predictor and outcomevariables included in the model.