Hostname: page-component-7b7567c8c-tnzcf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-11-15T02:01:07.832Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Predictive Versus Postdictive Models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2026

Rein Taagepera*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Tartu, Tartu EE-50090, Estonia
*

Abstract

Quantitatively predictive model building has proven itself in physics and could enrich political science, which is presently addicted to postdictive approaches. As a specific example, I address the dependence of electoral volatility on the number of parties in both ways: testing falsifiable predictive models based on logical considerations, and theory-free postdictive regression. The pressure to apply regression to any and all problems harms political science by omitting one-half of the scientific method. Most numbers published in political science are dead on arrival: once printed, they are never used for anything. We can do better than that. It is not a matter of starting from scratch but widening the tool kit so as to bring to completion research that presently all too often stops just short of the pay-off stage.

Information

Type
Symposium
Copyright
Copyright © 2007 European Consortium for Political Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable