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² See, e.g. G. Esping-Andersen, ‘After the Golden Age? Welfare State Dilemmas in the Global Economy’, in G. Esping-Andersen (ed.), Welfare States in Transition, London, Sage, 1996, pp. 1–31; P. Pierson, ‘Post-industrial Pressures on the Mature Welfare States’, in P. Pierson (ed.), The New Politics of the Welfare State, New York, Oxford University Press, 2001, pp. 80–104.Google Scholar

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⁵ The example is inspired by J. Myles and P. Pierson, ‘The Comparative Political Economy of Pension Reform’, in P. Pierson (ed.), The New Politics of the Welfare State, New York, Oxford University Press, 2001, pp. 305–33.Google Scholar

⁶ Other authors have made this point as well, although these accounts mostly lack a positive theoretical explanation like the one presented in this article of why and when reforms occur. See, e.g. R. Clayton and Pontussen, J., ‘Welfare-State Retrenchment Revisited. Entitlement Cuts, Public Sector Restructuring, and Inegalitarian Trends in Advanced Capitalist Societies’, World Politics, 51: 1 (1998), pp. 67–98;Google Scholar K. van Kersbergen, ‘The Declining Resistance of Welfare States to Change’, in S. Kuhnle (ed.), Survival of the European Welfare State, London, Routledge, 2000, pp. 19–36.

⁷ Mahoney, ‘Path Dependence in Historical Sociology’; Pierson, ‘Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics’; K. Thelen, ‘How Institutions Evolve. Insights from Comparative Historical Analysis’, in J. Mahoney and D. Rueschemeyer (eds), Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2003, pp. 208–40.Google Scholar

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¹¹ Wlezien, C., ‘The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending’, American Journal of Political Science, 39: 4 (1995), pp. 981–1000.CrossRefGoogle Scholar See also Durr, R. H., ‘What Moves Policy Sentiment?’, American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), pp. 158–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹² Studies concerning old-age pension systems within the ‘new politics’ framework include Myles and Pierson, ‘The Comparative Political Economy of Pension Reform’; Anderson, K. M., ‘Pension Politics in Three Small States: Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands’, Canadian Journal of Sociology, 29: 2 (2004), pp. 289–312; C. Green-Pedersen and A. Lindbom, ‘Politics Within Paths: The Trajectories of Danish and Swedish Earnings-related Pensions’, Journal of European Social Policy, 16: 3 (2006), pp. 245–58.Google Scholar

¹³ On public support as feedback see Pierson, P., ‘When Effect Becomes Cause. Policy Feedback and Political Change’, World Politics, 45: 4 (1993), pp. 595–628;CrossRefGoogle Scholar The relationship between different welfare-state policy areas and modes of public support also received some attention in the 1980s under the heading ‘consumption cleavages’, but has clearly had a limited impact on the ‘new politics’ literature. See, e.g. Taylor-Gooby, P., ‘Consumption Cleavages and Welfare Politics’, Political Studies, 34: 4 (1986), pp. 592–606 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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¹⁵ See for instance J. Clasen, J. Kvist and W. van Oorschot, ‘On Condition of Work: Increasing Work Requirements in Unemployment Compensation Schemes’, in J. Fritzell, B. Hvinden, M. Kautto, J. Kvist and H. Uusitalo (eds), Nordic Welfare States in the European Context, London, Routledge, 2001, pp. 198–231.Google Scholar

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²⁰ In the opinion of the author the theory of institutional veto points may provide a serious challenge, although this theory lacks the dynamics of the approach advocated in this article. See G. Bonoli, ‘Political Institutions, Veto Points, and the Process of Welfare State Adaptation’, in P. Pierson (ed.), The New Politics of the Welfare State, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2001, pp. 238–64.Google Scholar

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²² Myles, J. and Pierson, P., ‘Friedman's Revenge: The Reform of “Liberal” Welfare States in Canada and the United States’, Politics & Society, 25: 4 (1997), pp. 443–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar; J. F. Handler, ‘US Welfare Reform: The Big Experiment’, in J. Zeitlin and D. M. Trubek (eds), Governing Work and Welfare in a New Economy. European and American Experiments, Oxford and New York, Oxford University Press, 2003, pp. 215–39; R. Walker and M. Wiseman, ‘Leaving it Be: The 2002 US Debate on Welfare Reform’, Social Policy and Society, 2: 2 (2003), pp. 161–70; Committee on Ways and Means, 2004 Green Book, Washington, DC, Committee on Ways and Means, 2004.

²³ S. N. Soroka shows in a recent article how public attitude is affected much more by bad than good information on economic issues. It is hence likely that the political mood around the year 2000 changed much more dramatically towards opposition against any reforms than the relatively small increase in actual unemployment would seem to justify. See Soroka, S. N., ‘Good News and Bad News: Asymmetric Responses to Economic Information’, Journal of Politics, 68: 2 (2006), pp. 372–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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²⁷ J. G. Andersen, ‘Danskernes opbakning til velfærdsstaten – urokkelig, pävirkelig eller skrøbelig?’, in J. H. Petersen and K. Petersen (eds), 13 udfordringer til den danske velfærdstat, Odense, Syddansk Universitetsforlag, 2004, especially p. 120.Google Scholar

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