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Epidemics with carriers: The large population approximation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Hugh M. Pettigrew and
George H. Weiss
George H. Weiss
Affiliation:
National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland
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Abstract

This paper applies the constant population approximation to the study of epidemics which involve more than a single type of infective. An example of this would be a situation in which both clinically infected individuals and subclinically infected individuals or carriers are present.

We derive equations for the expected numbers of clinically infected individuals and carriers at any time t for the model with zero latent period and infectious periods having negative exponential distributions. From these equations we derive conditions under which a unimodal incidence curve can result, and expressions for the expected total epidemic size.

Information

Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 4 , Issue 2 , August 1967, pp. 257 - 263
Copyright
Copyright © Sheffield: Applied Probability Trust 

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