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Exact results for a secretary problem

Part of:Stochastic processesMarkov processes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

M. P. Quine and
J. S. Law
M. P. Quine*
Affiliation:
University of Sydney
J. S. Law*
Affiliation:
University of Sydney
*
∗ Postal address for both authors: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
∗ Postal address for both authors: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
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Abstract

We consider the following secretary problem: items ranked from 1 to n are randomly selected without replacement, one at a time, and to ‘win' is to stop at an item whose overall rank is less than or equal to s, given only the relative ranks of the items drawn so far. Our method of analysis is based on the existence of an imbedded Markov chain and uses the technique of backwards induction. In principal the approach can be used to give exact results for any value of s; we do the working for s = 3. We give exact results for the optimal strategy, the probability of success and the distribution of T, and the total number of draws when the optimal strategy is implemented. We also give some asymptotic results for these quantities as n → ∞.

Keywords

BACKWARDS INDUCTIONMARKOV CHAINOPTIMAL STOPPING

MSC classification

Primary:60G40: Stopping times; optimal stopping problems; gambling theory
Secondary:60J10: Markov chains (discrete-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces)

Information

Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 33 , Issue 3 , September 1996, pp. 630 - 639
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1996 

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