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A random allocation model for carrier-borne epidemics

Part of:Special processes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

D. J. Daley and
J. Gani
D. J. Daley*
Affiliation:
The Australian National University
J. Gani*
Affiliation:
University of California, Santa Barbara
*
∗ Postal address: Stochastic Analysis Group, School of Mathematical Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
∗∗ Postal address: Department of Statistics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
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Abstract

A carrier-borne epidemic is considered in which the carriers, subject to a death process, infect susceptibles by random allocation rather than the classical homogeneous mixing process. An explicit solution for the probability generating function (p.g.f.) of the process is obtained, and a probabilistic analysis of carrier models provided. The sizes and durations of the random allocation and classical carrier epidemics are compared. The strongest comparisons concern sample path results based on the probabilistic analysis; this also gives a sounder basis for computational work.

Keywords

HOMOGENEOUS MIXINGSIZE OF EPIDEMICDURATION OF EPIDEMIC

MSC classification

Primary:60K30: Applications (congestion, allocation, storage, traffic, etc.)
Secondary:92D30: Epidemiology

Information

Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 30 , Issue 4 , December 1993, pp. 751 - 765
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1993 

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Footnotes

Research carried out with the support of NIH Grant ROI AI 29426 while visiting the Australian National University.

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