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Moving beyond the Nordic consensus: Discontent and perceptions of reasonableness in COVID-19 restrictions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 September 2026

Therese Sefton*
Affiliation:
Oslo Metropolitan University , Norway
Johan Nordensvärd
Affiliation:
Division of Energy Systems, Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University , Linköping, Sweden Management and Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology , Stockholm, Sweden
Therese Dokken
Affiliation:
Norwegian Social Research, Oslo Metropolitan University , Norway
*
Corresponding author: Therese Sefton; Email: therese.sefton@gmail.com
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Abstract

This study examines public perceptions of the reasonableness of COVID-19 restrictions in the Nordic countries using survey data collected in mid-2022 (N = 5,674). It investigates how gender, parenthood, institutional trust, fear of illness, and country context were associated with attitudes towards home office mandates, school closures, kindergarten closures, and restrictions on leisure activities. Perceptions were broadly similar across the Nordic countries, although some cross-country differences were observed. Gender differences in pooled adjusted models were modest, but parents often rated school and kindergarten closures as somewhat less reasonable than respondents without children. Institutional trust was consistently associated with higher perceived reasonableness, while fear of illness was also positively associated with support for restrictions. The findings suggest that public support depended not only on policy strictness, but also on trust, fear, and the everyday consequences of specific measures.

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Social Policy Association
Figure 0

Table 1. Trust, fear, and perceptions of reasonableness across the Nordic countries, 2022Table 1. long description.

Figure 1

Table 2. Descriptive statistics for perceptions of reasonableness of COVID-19 restrictions by gender and country, Nordic countries, 2022Table 2. long description.

Figure 2

Figure 1. H1a: Adjusted predicted margins for perceived reasonableness of COVID-19 restriction measures by gender in the pooled sample from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, 2022. Estimates are based on the full OLS model (Table 3).Note: Points represent predicted values; whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals.Figure 1. long description.

Figure 3

Figure 2. H1b: Adjusted predicted margins for perceived reasonableness of COVID-19 restriction measures by gender and parenthood in the pooled sample from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, 2022. Estimates are based on the interaction model.Note: Points represent predicted values; whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals.Figure 2. long description.

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Figure 3. H2a: Adjusted predicted margins for perceived reasonableness of school closures by parenthood status across Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, 2022. Estimates are based on the interaction between parenthood and country.Note: Points represent predicted values for respondents with and without children under 18; whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals.Figure 3. long description.

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Figure 4. H3a: Adjusted predicted margins for perceived reasonableness of COVID-19 restrictions across Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Iceland, 2022.Note: Points represent predicted values; whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals.Figure 4. long description.

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Figure 5. H3b: Adjusted predicted margins for perceived reasonableness of COVID-19 restrictions across the Nordic countries at three levels of policy stringency.Note: Points represent predicted values; whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals.Figure 5. long description.

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Table 3. Key results from pooled OLS models*Table 3. long description.

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Table A1. Descriptive statistics by country and gender, mean value and shareTable A1. long description.

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Table B1. Combined models across hypothesesTable B1. long description.

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Table B2. Regression results examining the interaction between education level and gender on perceptions of the reasonableness of COVID-19 restrictions. This additional table complements the main analysis in Appendix B by providing a detailed breakdown of how education, gender, and other covariates such as trust, fear of illness, and age influence perceptions. Standard errors are reported in parentheses, and significance levels are indicated (* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001)”Table B2. long description.

Figure 11

Figure C1. Adjusted predicted margins for perceived reasonableness of COVID-19 restriction measures by educational level, pooled sample from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, 2022. Note: Estimates are based on the education model and adjusted for gender and other covariates. Points represent predicted values; whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals.Figure C1. long description.

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Figure C2. H2b: Kindergarten closures: Interaction of parenthood and country. This figure shows the predicted margins for parents and non-parents in perceptions of the reasonableness of kindergarten closures across countries. Note: Non-parents consistently rated kindergarten closures as slightly more reasonable than parents, with the smallest differences observed in Norway and Denmark. Iceland reported the highest overall ratings for both groups, reflecting stronger public consensus on the reasonableness of these measures.Figure C2. long description.

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Figure C3. H2c: School closures – interaction of family structure and parenthood. Note: This figure shows the predicted margins for the interaction between family structure and parenthood in perceptions of school closures.Figure C3. long description.

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Figure C4. Adjusted predicted margins for perceived reasonableness of kindergarten closures by family structure and parenthood status in the pooled sample from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, 2022. Note: The “Not specified” marital-status category was omitted from the figure because it reflects missing information rather than a substantively interpretable family-structure category. Points represent predicted values; whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals.Figure C4. long description.

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Figure C5. H2c Kindergarten closures – single mothers versus single fathers. Note: This figure illustrates the predicted margins for single mothers and single fathers in perceptions of the reasonableness of kindergarten closures.Figure C5. long description.

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Figure C6. Effect of trust on perceived reasonableness of restrictions. Note: This figure illustrates the positive and statistically significant association between trust in institutions and perceptions of the reasonableness of COVID-19 restrictions. A one-unit increase in the trust index is associated with a 0.056-point increase in perceived reasonableness (p < 0.001). Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.Figure C6. long description.

Figure 17

Figure C7. Adjusted predicted margins for perceived reasonableness of COVID-19 restrictions by fear of illness in the pooled sample from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, 2022. Note: Points represent predicted values; whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals.Figure C7. long description.

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Table D1. H3b policy stringency and perceptionsTable D1. long description.

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Figure D1. Policy stringency across Nordic countries during COVID-19, as measured by the Oxford COVID-19 government response tracker (OxCGRT).Figure D1. long description.

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Table D2. Policy stringency index (OxCGRT)*Table D2. long description.

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Table D3. Robustness check for H3b excluding Sweden see Oxford COVID-19 government response tracker (OxCGRT).Table D3. long description.

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Table E1. Citizen survey.Table E1. long description.