Hostname: page-component-7b7567c8c-7pwfn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-11-14T09:05:33.646Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A fuzzy-hybrid SHELL framework for predicting air traffic conflict detection and resolution performance: a human-factors perspective

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 March 2025

Fitri Trapsilawati*
Affiliation:
Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jalan Grafika no. 2, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The complex tasks of air traffic control (ATC) and the various factors affecting its operation have shed light on the need to build a model to predict conflict detection and resolution (CDR) performance within a traffic situation. This study aimed at developing a fuzzy-hybrid framework for quantifying various aspects in ATC consisting of the software, hardware, environment, liveware and organisation (i.e. the SHELL model) to predict CDR performance. The proposed fuzzy-hybrid SHELL framework in this study was tested using metadata from 10 prior studies in ATC. The results showed a highly accurate prediction, as indicated by the RMSE and MAPE values of 0⋅09 and 5⋅36%, respectively, indicating a high consistency of 90⋅92% for predicting the CDR performance. This framework offers a promising approach for Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) to maintain air traffic safety and improve ATC operations efficiency.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The Royal Institute of Navigation
Figure 0

Figure 1.ATC separation Minima (ICAO, 2019)

Figure 1

Table 1.The variables of each SHELL construct

Figure 2

Table 2.The linguistic variables and the respective membership functions

Figure 3

Figure 2.The membership function of situation awareness

Figure 4

Table 3.The number of fuzzy rules for each SHELL interface

Figure 5

Figure 3.Graphical representation of the rules for the L-L interface

Figure 6

Figure 4.Schematic diagram of the fuzzy-hybrid SHELL framework

Figure 7

Table 4.The results of framework implementation using the metadata

Figure 8

Figure 5.An example of fuzzy output for the L-L interface

Figure 9

Table 5.The measures of CDR prediction accuracy