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Ship Manoeuvring in Restricted Areas: An Attempt to Quantify Dangerous Situations Using a Probabilistic-Fuzzy Method

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2006

Lucjan Gucma and
Zbigniew Pietrzykowski
Lucjan Gucma
Affiliation:
Maritime University of Szczecin. Email: lucek@am.szczecin.pl
Zbigniew Pietrzykowski
Affiliation:
Maritime University of Szczecin. Email: lucek@am.szczecin.pl
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Abstract

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This paper presents a practical application of the probabilistic-fuzzy method for assessment of the safety of a ship manoeuvring in waterways. The method, based on probabilistic risk analysis and elements of fuzzy logic, takes into account situations of threatened navigational safety and situations when a navigator intuitively thinks that the safety of manoeuvring ship is threatened. The probability of grounding a ship manoeuvring in a waterway bend is determined by means of simulation method. Then, with the use of experts' knowledge and tools of fuzzy logic the probability of a dangerous situation is determined. Two different approaches are applied for the determination of that probability. The results are compared.

Keywords

Human FactorDangerous SituationManoeuvringFuzzy Probability

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Navigation , Volume 59 , Issue 2 , May 2006, pp. 251 - 262
Copyright
2006 The Royal Institute of Navigation