Hostname: page-component-7b7567c8c-7pwfn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-11-14T10:12:25.224Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

ADULT LONGEVITY AND GROWTH TAKEOFF

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2014

Daishin Yasui
Daishin Yasui*
Affiliation:
Kobe University
*
Address correspondence to: Daishin Yasui, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan; e-mail: yasui@econ.kobe-u.ac.jp.
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the 'Save PDF' action button.

This paper develops an overlapping-generations model in which agents make educational and fertility decisions under life-cycle considerations and retirement from work is distinguished from death. Gains in adult longevity induce agents to decrease fertility, invest in education, and achieve higher income in order to save more for retirement. Even if working life is shortened by early retirement, this mechanism works as long as adult longevity increases sufficiently. Our model can explain the positive effect of life expectancy on education without contradicting the fact that working life length has not substantially increased, because of retirement. We also provide new insights into the interaction between fertility and retirement decisions.

Keywords

FertilityGrowthHuman CapitalLife ExpectancyRetirement

Information

Type
Articles
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 20 , Issue 1 , January 2016, pp. 165 - 188
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2014 

References

REFERENCES

Acemoglu, Daron and Johnson, Simon (2007) Disease and development: The effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of Political Economy 115 (6), 925–985.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banerjee, Abhijit and Andrew Newman (1993) Occupational choice and the process of development. Journal of Political Economy 101 (2), 274–298.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar, Michael and Leukhina, Oksana (2010) The role of mortality in the transmission of knowledge. Journal of Economic Growth 15 (4), 291–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, Gary (1960) An economic analysis of fertility. In Coale, Ansley J. (ed.), Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pp. 209–231. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Becker, Gary, Murphy, Kevin, and Tamura, Robert (1990) Human capital, fertility, and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy 98 (5), 12–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, Gary, Philipson, Tomas, and Soares, Rodrigo (2005) The quantity and quality of life and the evolution of world inequality. American Economic Review 95 (1), 277–291.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bénabou, Roland (1996) Heterogeneity, stratification, and growth: Macroeconomic implications of community structure and school finance. American Economic Review 86 (3), 584–609.Google Scholar
Ben-Porath, Yoram (1967) The production of human capital and the life cycle of earnings. Journal of Political Economy 75 (4), 352–365.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bils, Mark and Klenow, Peter (2000) Does schooling cause growth? American Economic Review 90 (5), 1160–1183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blackburn, Keith and Cipriani, Giam (2002) A model of longevity, fertility and growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26 (2), 187–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bloom, David, Canning, David, and Graham, Bryan (2003) Longevity and life-cycle savings. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 105 (3), 319–338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bloom, David, Canning, David, and Moore, Michael (2007) A Theory of Retirement. NBER working paper 13630.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boucekkine, Raouf, de la Croix, David, and Licandro, Omar (2002) Vintage human capital, demographic trends, and endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Theory 104 (2), 340–375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boucekkine, Raouf, de la Croix, David, and Licandro, Omar (2003) Early mortality decline at the dawn of modern growth. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 105 (3), 401–418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boucekkine, Raouf, de la Croix, David, and Peeters, Dominique (2007) Early literacy achievements, population density and the transition to modern growth. Journal of the European Economic Association 5 (1), 183–226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cai, Zhipeng and Lau, Sau-Him (2011) Does Mortality Decline Always Lead to an Increase in Human Capital Investment? Mimeo. http://scholar.google.co.jp/scholar?cluster=8044902955029159914&hl=ja&as_sdt=0,5.Google Scholar
Cervellati, Matteo and Sunde, Uwe (2005) Human capital formation, life expectancy, and the process of development. American Economic Review 95 (5), 1653–1672.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cervellati, Matteo and Sunde, Uwe (2010) Longevity and Lifetime Labor Supply: Evidence and Implications Revisited. Mimeo. http://scholar.google.co.jp/scholar?cluster=9177451458087794164&hl=ja&as_sdt=0,5.Google Scholar
Cervellati, Matteo and Sunde, Uwe (2011) Life expectancy and economic growth: The role of the demographic transition. Journal of Economic Growth 16 (2), 99–133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cervellati, Matteo and Sunde, Uwe (2013) The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development. IZA discussion paper 7199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chakraborty, Shankha (2004) Endogenous lifetime and economic growth. Journal of Economic Theory 116 (1), 119–137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chakraborty, Shankha (2005) Mortality, human capital and persistent inequality. Journal of Economic Growth 10 (2), 159–192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, Hung-Ju (2010) Life expectancy, fertility, and educational investment. Journal of Population Economics 23 (1), 37–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, Gregory (2005) Human capital, fertility, and the industrial revolution. Journal of the European Economic Association 3 (2–3), 505–515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahan, Momi and Tsiddon, Daniel (1998) Demographic transition, income distribution, and economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth 3 (1), 29–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De la Croix, David and Doepke, Matthias (2003) Inequality and growth: Why differential fertility matters. American Economic Review 93 (4), 1091–1113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De la Croix, David and Doepke, Matthias (2004) Public versus private education when differential fertility matters. Journal of Development Economics 73 (2), 607–629.Google Scholar
De la Croix, David and Licandro, Omar (1999) Life expectancy and endogenous growth. Economics Letters 65 (2), 255–263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De la Croix, David and Licandro, Omar (2013) The child is father of the man: Implications for the demographic transition. Economic Journal 123 (567), 236–261.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doepke, Matthias (2004) Accounting for fertility decline during the transition to growth. Journal of Economic Growth 9 (3), 347–383.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doepke, Matthias (2005) Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro–Becker model fit the facts? Journal of Population Economics 18 (2), 337–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doepke, Matthias, Hazan, Moshe and Maoz, Yishay (2007) The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis. IZA discussion paper 3253.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doepke, Matthias and Zilibotti, Fabrizio (2005) The macroeconomics of child labor regulation. American Economic Review 95 (5), 1492–1524.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ehrlich, Isaac and Lui, Francis T. (1991) Intergenerational trade, longevity, and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy 99 (5), 1029–1059.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferreira, Pedro and Pessôa, Samuel (2007) The effects of longevity and distortions on education and retirement. Review of Economic Dynamics 10 (3), 472–493.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galor, Oded (2005a) From stagnation to growth: Unified growth theory. In Aghion, Philippe and Durlauf, Steven (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1A, pp. 171–293. Elsevier.Google Scholar
Galor, Oded (2005b) The demographic transition and the emergence of sustained economic growth. Journal of the European Economic Association 3 (2–3), 494–504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galor, Oded and Moav, Omer (2002) Natural selection and the origins of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (4), 1133–1191.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galor, Oded and Moav, Omer (2006) Das human-kapital: A theory of the demise of the class structure. Review of Economic Studies 73 (1), 85–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galor, Oded and Weil, David (1999) From Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. American Economic Review 89 (2), 150–154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galor, Oded and Weil, David (2000) Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review 90 (4), 806–828.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galor, Oded and Zeira, Joseph (1993) Income distribution and macroeconomics. Review of Economic Studies 60 (1), 35–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gendell, Murray and Siegel, Jacob (1992) Trends in retirement age by sex, 1950–2005. Monthly Labor Review 115 (July), 22–29.Google Scholar
Glomm, Gerhard and Ravikumar, Balasubrahmanian (1992) Public versus private investment in human capital: Endogenous growth and income inequality. Journal of Political Economy 100 (4), 818–834.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greenwood, Jeremy and Seshadri, Ananth (2002) The U.S. demographic transition. American Economic Review 92 (2), 153–159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greenwood, Jeremy, Seshadri, Ananth, and Yorukoglu, Mehmet (2005) Engines of liberation. Review of Economic Studies 72 (1), 109–133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, Casper and Løstrup, Lars (2012) Can higher life expectancy induce more schooling and earlier retirement? Journal of Population Economics 25 (4), 1249–1264.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hazan, Moshe (2009) Longevity and lifetime labor supply: Evidence and implications. Econometrica 77 (6), 1829–1863.Google Scholar
Hazan, Moshe and Berdugo, Binyamin (2002) Child labor, fertility, and economic growth. Economic Journal 112 (482), 810–828.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jayachandran, Seema and Lleras-Muney, Andriana (2009) Life expectancy and human capital investments: Evidence from maternal mortality declines. Quarterly Journal of Economics 124 (1), 349–398.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (2002) Does the mortality decline promote economic growth? Journal of Economic Growth 7 (4), 411–439.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (2003) A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment. Journal of Development Economics 70 (1), 103–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, Ryder, Harl, and Weil, David (2000) Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics 62 (1), 1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem and Weil, David (2010) Mortality change, the uncertainty effect, and retirement. Journal of Economic Growth 15 (1), 65–91.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kimura, Masako and Yasui, Daishin (2007) Occupational choice, educational attainment, and fertility. Economics Letters 94 (2), 228–234.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kimura, Masako and Yasui, Daishin (2010) The Galor–Weil gender-gap model revisited: From home to market. Journal of Economic Growth 15 (4), 323–351.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter (2003) From Malthus to modern growth: Can epidemics explain the three regimes? International Economic Review 44 (2), 755–777.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Chulhee (2001) The expected length of male retirement in the United States, 1850–1990. Journal of Population Economics 14 (4), 641–650.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lorentzen, Peter, McMillan, John, and Wacziarg, Romain (2008) Death and development. Journal of Economic Growth 13 (2), 81–124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lucas, Robert Jr. (2002) The Industrial Revolution: Past and future. In Lucas, Robert Jr., (ed.), Lectures on Economic Growth, pp. 109–188. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Mammen, Kristin and Paxson, Christina (2000) Women's work and economic development. Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 (4), 141–164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meltzer, David (1992) Mortality Decline, the Demographic Transition, and Economic Growth. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Moav, Omer (2005) Cheap children and the persistence of poverty. Economic Journal 115 (500), 88–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Preston, Samuel (1975) The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development. Population Studies 29 (2), 231–248.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Preston, Samuel (1980) Causes and consequences of mortality declines in less developed countries during the twentieth century. In Easterlin, Richard (ed.), Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries, pp. 289–360. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Ramey, Valerie and Francis, Neville (2009) A century of work and leisure. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1 (2), 189–224.Google Scholar
Shastry, Gauri and Weil, David (2003) How much of the cross-country variation in income is explained by health? Journal of the European Economic Association 1 (2-3), 387–396.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sheshinski, Eytan (2009) Uncertain Longevity and Investment in Education. CESifo working paper 2784.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Soares, Rodrigo (2005) Mortality reductions, educational attainment, and fertility choice. American Economic Review 95 (3), 580–601.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Soares, Rodrigo and Falcão, Bruno (2008) The demographic transition and the sexual division of labor. Journal of Political Economy 116 (6), 1058–1104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tamura, Robert (1996) From decay to growth: A demographic transition to economic growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 20 (6-7), 1237–1261.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhang, Jie and Zhang, Junsen (2005) The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: Theory and evidence. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 107 (1), 45–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar