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A MIXED BLESSING

Natural Resources and Economic Growth

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 1999

Thorvaldur Gylfason
Affiliation:
University of Iceland
Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson
Affiliation:
University of Iceland and University of Aarhus
Gylfi Zoega
Affiliation:
Birkbeck College, University of London
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Abstract

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This paper diagnoses the symptoms of the Dutch disease in a two-sectorstochastic endogenous growth model. A productive, low-skill-intensiveprimary sector causes the currency to appreciate in real terms, thushampering the development of a high-skill-intensive secondary sector andthereby reducing growth. Moreover, the volatility of the primary sectorgenerates real-exchange-rate uncertainty and may thus reduce investment andlearning in the secondary sector and hence also growth. Cross-sectional andpanel regressions based on data for 125 countries in the period 1960–1992confirm a statistically significant inverse relationship between the size ofthe primary sector and economic growth, but not between the volatility ofthe real exchange rate and growth.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 1999 Cambridge University Press