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STOCK RETURNS, TERM STRUCTURE, INFLATION, AND REAL ACTIVITY: ANINTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 October 2000

Fabio Canova
Affiliation:
Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Gianni De Nicoló
Affiliation:
Federal Reserve Board
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Abstract

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This paper analyzes the empirical interdependeciesamong asset returns, real activity, and inflation from multicountryand international points of view. We find that innovations in nominalstock returns are not significantly related to inflation or realactivity, that the U.S. term structure of interest rates predicts bothdomestic and foreign inflation rates and domestic future realactivity, and that innovations in inflation do not significantlyaffect real activity. An interpretation of the dynamics andsome policy implications of the results areprovided.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2000 Cambridge University Press