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TIME-SERIES MODEL WITH PERIODIC STOCHASTIC REGIME SWITCHING

Part I: Theory

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 January 2001

Eric Ghysels
Affiliation:
University of North Carolina and Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche en Analyse des Organisations
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Abstract

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We present a class of stochastic regime-switching models.The time-series models may have periodic transition probabilities andthe drifts may be seasonal. In the latter case, the model exhibitsseasonal dummy variation that may change with the regime. Theprocesses entail nontrivial interactions between so-called businessand seasonal cycles. We discuss the stochastic properties as well astheir relationship with periodic ARMA processes. Estimation andtesting are also discussed in detail.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2000 Cambridge University Press