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Devising Scenarios for Future Repository Evolution: A Rigorous Methodology

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 February 2011

Neil A. Chapman,
Johan Andersson,
Peter Robinson,
Kristina Skagius,
Clas-Otto Wene,
Marie Wiborgh and
Stig Wingefors
Neil A. Chapman
Affiliation:
Intera Information Technologies, Melton Mowbray, UK;
Johan Andersson
Affiliation:
Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm, Sweden;
Peter Robinson
Affiliation:
Intera Information Technologies, Melton Mowbray, UK;
Kristina Skagius
Affiliation:
Kemakta, Stockholm, Sweden;
Clas-Otto Wene
Affiliation:
Chalmers Institute of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden.
Marie Wiborgh
Affiliation:
Kemakta, Stockholm, Sweden;
Stig Wingefors
Affiliation:
Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm, Sweden;
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Abstract

The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate is developing a new methodology for the construction of scenarios for radiological consequence analysis as part of its SITE-94 performance assessment project. SITE-94 involves the incorporation of site specific data from the Äspö site into a performance assessment (PA) of a hypothetical high-level waste repository. This paper describes a systems analysis approach that has been developed based on the concept of organising all the events and processes which need to be taken account of in PA into a ‘process system’ and a much smaller residual group which are used to generate scenarios. The methodology used for developing scenarios, producing calculation cases and addressing the various types of uncertainty involved in PA consequence analysis is described.

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References

REFERENCES

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