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Distributions of Concentration Limits for the Source Term in Performance Assessments

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 March 2011

William M. Murphy,
Steve Soldavini and
Colin M. Gallagher
William M. Murphy
Affiliation:
College of Natural Sciences California State University, Chico, California 95929-0205 USA; wmurphy@csuchico.edu
Steve Soldavini
Affiliation:
College of Natural Sciences California State University, Chico, California 95929-0205, USA
Colin M. Gallagher
Affiliation:
College of Natural Sciences California State University, Chico, California 95929-0205, USA
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Abstract

Radionuclide concentration limits are important parameters in performance assessments for geologic disposal of nuclear waste, but their statistical distributions are challenging to define. Thermodynamic solubilities provide an attractive theoretical constraint, but solubilities do not provide a basis for distribution functions, and concentration limits can exceed solubilities in irreversible systems. Distributions of natural concentrations are broad and do not correspond to distributions of concentration limits. Interpretations of natural nickel and lead concentrations suggest that they do not represent concentration limit distributions. Interpretation of groundwater data for dissolved calcium indicates a bimodal distribution, which hypothetically corresponds to a solubility-limited population and a population of values below the solubility limits.

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