Hostname: page-component-7b7567c8c-wxvwp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-11-15T11:18:44.753Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Estimating Aggregate Policy Reform Effects: New Baselines for Registration, Participation, and Representation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2017

Richard J. Timpone
Richard J. Timpone*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University, 2140 Derby Hall, Columbus, OH 43210. e-mail: timpone.1@osu.edu http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/faculty/rtimpone/
Get accessRights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Statistical models are often extended to explore the aggregate impact of policy reforms. After discussing these techniques and the incorporation of prediction uncertainty, this article examines the effects of registration reform in an analytic framework that explicitly considers the two stages that defined electoral participation throughout the 20th century in the United States—registration and then voting. Using selection bias techniques, the effects of counterfactual registration reform conditions are explored on the aggregate level of participation and the nature of representation in the electoral process. These offer a richer baseline of the impact of policy changes than previous work by directly exploring the expected level of dropoff in going to the polls by new registrants. Results indicate that the dropoff between registration and voting would be expected to increase as more individuals become registered. In addition, while turnout due to reforms among projected “new registrants” shows potentially larger biases than those among existing registrants, because of the different bases of registration the changes would still lead to a modest reduction in the disparity between actual group sizes and their role in elections.

Information

Type
Articles
Information
Political Analysis , Volume 10 , Issue 2 , Spring 2002, pp. 154 - 177
Copyright
Copyright © Political Methodology Section of the American Political Science Association 2002 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Alvarez, R. Michael, and Nagler, Jonathan. 1995. “Economics, Issues and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election.” American Journal of Political Science 39:714–744.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aylsworth, Leon E. 1931. “The Passing of Alien Suffrage.” American Political Science Review 25:114–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, Stephen Earl. 1990a. “Rejoinder to Piven and Cloward.” PS: Political Science & Politics 23:173–175.Google Scholar
Bennett, Stephen Earl. 1990b. “The Uses and Abuses of Registration and Turnout Data: An Analysis of Piven and Cloward's Studies of Nonvoting in America.” PS: Political Science & Politics 23:166–171.Google Scholar
Brady, Henry E., Verba, Sidney, and Lehman Schlozman, Kay. 1995. “Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Participation.” American Political Science Review 89:271–294.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brians, Craig Leonard. 1998. “Motor Voter: Registration Without Voting?” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.Google Scholar
Brians, Craig Leonard, and Grofman, Bernard. 1999. “When Registration Barriers Fall, Who Votes? An Empirical Test of a Rational Choice Model.” Public Choice 99:161–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brians, Craig Leonard, and Grofman, Bernard. 2001. “Election Day Registration's Effect on U.S. Voter Turnout.” Social Science Quarterly 82:170–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bruce, Peter. 1997a. “How the Experts Got Voter Turnout Wrong Last Year.” Public Perspective 8(6): 39–43.Google Scholar
Bruce, Peter. 1997b. “Reply to Gans.” Public Perspective 8(6): 49.Google Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean. 1965. “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe.” American Political Science Review 59:7–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean. 1982. The Current Crisis in American Politics. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean. 1986. “Those High Nineteenth-Century American Voting Turnouts: Fact or Fiction?” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 41(4): 613–644.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calvert, Jerry W. 1996. “‘Motor Voter’ Registration: Will It Make a Difference?” American Review of Politics 17:365–378.Google Scholar
Casper, Lynne M., and Bass, Loretta E. 1998. Voting and Registration in the Election of November 1996. Current Population Reports P20-504. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. 1981. “Why Do People Vote? Because They Are Registered.” American Politics Quarterly 9(3): 259–276.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1991. “Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science.” World Politics 43:169–195.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franklin, David P., and Grier, Eric E. 1997. “Effects of Motor Voter Legislation: Voter Turnout, Registration, and Partisan Trends in the 1992 Presidential Election.” American Politics Quarterly 25(1): 104–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gans, Curtis B. 1990. “A Rejoinder to Piven and Cloward.” PS: Political Science & Politics 23:175–178.Google Scholar
Gans, Curtis B. 1997. “It's Bruce Who Got the Turnout Story Wrong.” Public Perspective 8(6): 44–48.Google Scholar
Ginsburg, Gerald. 1986. “Computing Antebellum Turnout: Methods and Models.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 16(4): 579–611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodman, Nelson. 1947. “The Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals.” Journal of Philosophy 44:113–128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greene, William H. 2000. Econometric Analysis, 4th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Herron, Michael C. 1998. “Voting, Abstention, and Individual Expectations in the 1992 Presidential Election.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association.Google Scholar
Highton, Benjamin. 1997. “Easy Registration and Voter Turnout.” Journal of Politics 59(2): 565–575.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Highton, Benjamin, and Wolfinger, Raymond E. 1998. “Estimating the Effects of the National Voter Registration Act of 1993.” Political Behavior 20(2): 79–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, David. 1998. “The Impact of the National Voter Registration Act on the Social Composition of State Electorates.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association.Google Scholar
Hill, Kim Quaile, and Leighley, Jan E. 1992. “The Policy Consequences of Class Bias in State Electorates.” American Journal of Political Science 36:351–365.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, Kim Quaile, Leighley, Jan E., and Hinton-Andersson, Angela. 1995. “Lower-Class Mobilization and Policy Linkage in the U.S. States.” American Journal of Political Science 39:75–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackson, Robert A. 1995. “Clarifying the Relationship Between Education and Turnout.” American Politics Quarterly 23:279–299.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackson, Robert A. 1996. “A Reassessment of Voter Mobilization.” Political Research Quarterly 49:331–349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karp, Jeffrey A., and Banducci, Susan A. 2000. “Going Postal: How All-Mail Elections Influence Turnout.” Political Behavior 22(3): 223–239.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelley Stanley, Jr, Ayres, Richard E., and Bowen, William G. 1967. “Registration and Voting: Putting First Things First.” American Political Science Review 61:359–379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Key, V. O. 1958. Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups, 4th ed. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2001. “Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation.” American Journal of Political Science 44:347–361.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. 2001. “How Factual Is Your Counterfactual.” Paper presented at the Political Methodology Meeting, Atlanta, GA.Google Scholar
Knack, Stephen. 1995. “Does Motor Voter Work? Evidence From State Level Data.” Journal of Politics 57(3): 796–811.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Knack, Stephen. 1999. “Drivers Wanted: Motor Voter and the Election of 1996.” PS: Political Science & Politics 32:237–243.Google Scholar
Knack, Stephen, and White, James. 2000. “Election-Day Registration and Turnout Inequality.” Political Behavior 22(1): 29–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lacy, Dean, and Burden, Barry C. 1999. “The Vote-Stealing and Turnout Effects of Ross Perot in the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election.” American Journal of Political Science 43:233–255.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leighley, Jan E., and Nagler, Jonathan. 1992. “Socioeconomic Bias in Turnout 1964-1988: The Voters Remain the Same.” American Political Science Review 86:725–736.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martinez, Michael D., and Hill, David. 1999. “Did Motor Voter Work?” American Politics Quarterly 27:296–315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Merriam Charles, Edward, and Foote Gosnell, Harold. 1924. Non-Voting: Causes and Methods of Control. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Mitchell, Glenn E., and Wlezien, Christopher. 1995. “The Impact of Legal Constraints on Voter Registration, Turnout, and the Composition of the American Electorate.” Political Behavior 17:179–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nagler, Jonathan. 1991. “The Effect of Registration Laws and Education on U.S. Voter Turnout.” American Political Science Review 85:1393–1405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A. 1988. Why Americans Don't Vote. New York: Pantheon Books.Google Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A. 1989. “Government Statistics and Conflicting Explanations of Nonvoting.” PS: Political Science & Politics 22:580–588.Google Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A. 1990. “A Reply to Bennett.” PS: Political Science & Politics 23:172–173.Google Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A. 1996. “Northern Bourbons: A Preliminary Report on the National Voter Registration Act.” PS: Political Science & Politics 29:39–42.Google Scholar
Richardson, Lilliard E. Jr., and Neeley, Grant W. 1995. “Turnout Differences Among Registered Voters.” South-eastern Political Review. 23:731–742.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Mark Hansen, John. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., Behr, Roy L., and Lazarus, Edward H. 1996. Third Parties in America, 2nd ed. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Tate, Katherine. 1993. From Protest to Politics: The New Black Voters in American Elections. New York, Cambridge, MA, and London: Russell Sage Foundation and Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Teixeira, Ruy A. 1992. The Disappearing American Voter. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Tetlock, Philip E., and Belkin, eds, Aaron. 1996. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Timpone, Richard J. 1998. “Structure, Behavior and Voter Turnout in the United States.” American Political Science Review 92:145–158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Timpone, Richard J., and Ellis, Charles H. n.d. “Distilling the Universal Solvent: Non-monotonicity and the Relationship Between Education and Participation.” Work in progress. Columbus: The Ohio State University.Google Scholar
Uhlaner, Carole J. 1989. “Turnout in Recent American Presidential Elections” Political Behavior 11:57–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1989. Current Population Survey: Voter Supplement File, 1988 [computer file]. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census [producer]. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1990.Google Scholar
Verba, Sidney, and Nie, Norman H. 1972. Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Verba, Sidney, Lehman Schlozman, Kay, and Brady, Henry E. 1995. Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E. 1991. “Voter Turnout.” Society 28(5): 23–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Hoffman, Jonathan. 2001. “Registering and Voting with Motor Voter.” PS: Political Science & Politics 34:85–92.Google Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Rosenstone, Steven J. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar