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A MARKOV CHAIN CHOICE PROBLEM

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 December 2012

Sheldon M. Ross*
Affiliation:
Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA E-mail: smross@usc.edu
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Abstract

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Consider two independent Markov chains having states 0, 1, and identical transition probabilities. At each stage one of the chains is observed, and a reward equal to the observed state is earned. Assuming prior probabilities on the initial states of the chains it is shown that the myopic policy that always chooses to observe the chain most likely to be in state 1 stochastically maximizes the sequence of rewards earned in each period.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013