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⁵ Throughout this article I use the term “Middle East” to include North Africa. I adopt the World Bank's definition of this region: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

⁶ According to Lenin, “The rentier state is a state of parasitic, decaying capitalism, and this circumstance cannot fail to influence all the socio-political conditions of the countries concerned.” Lenin, V. I., “Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism,” in Tucker, Robert C., ed., The Lenin Anthology (New YorkW. W. Norton, 1975).Google Scholar

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¹⁶ Perhaps they have thought about it too carefully. Chaudhry (fn. 8), notes that “theories of the rentier state far outstrip detailed empirical analysis of actual cases” (p. 187).

¹⁷ Case studies often conflate these three effects. I treat them here as separate mechanisms to clarify their logic.

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³⁷ See Collier and Hoeffler (fn. 4); de Soysa (fn. 4).

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³⁹ Inglehart (fn. 1), 163.

⁴⁰ Ibid., 161.

⁴¹ A fourth explanation has been offered by U.S. vice president Richard Cheney, a political scientist by training: “The problem is that the good Lord didn't see fit to put oil and gas reserves where there are democratic governments.” Cited in Ignatius, David, “Oil and Politics Mix Suspiciously Well in America,” Washington Post, July 30, 2000, A31.Google Scholar

⁴² Each of the variables is defined more precisely in Appendix 1. Gurr, Ted R. and Jaggers, Keith, “Polity 98: Regime Characteristics, 1800–1998,” http://www.bsos.umd.edu/cidcm/polity/, 1999Google Scholar (consulted March 1, 2000).

⁴³ Here I am following the practice of Londregan, John B. and Poole, Keith T., “Does High Income Promote Democracy?” World Politics 49 (October 1996).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴⁴ Oil and Minerals are similar to the indicators used by Sachs and Warner (fn. 3, 1995) and by Leite and Weidmann (fn. 3) in their studies of the influence of resource wealth on economic performance. While Sachs and Warner combine fuels, nonfuel minerals, and agricultural goods into a single variable, I consider them as separate variables to see if their regression coefficients (and hence their influence on regime types) differ.

⁴³ Lipset (fn. 38); Burkhart, Ross E. and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. “Comparative Democracy: The Economic Development Thesis,” American Political Science Review 88 (December 1994)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Londregan and Poole (fn. 43); Przeworski and Limongi (fn. 2); Barro (fn. 13).

⁴⁶ In virtually all cases, the figure for 1980 (the only other year for which data were available) was identical to the 1970 figure.

⁴⁷ Salamé (fn. 22); Lipset, Seymour Martin, “The Social Requisites of Democracy Revisited,” American Sociological Review 59 (February 1994)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Midlarsky, Manus, “Democracy and Islam: Implications for Civilizational Conflict and the Democratic Peace,” International Studies Quarterly 42 (December 1998).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴⁸ Barro (fn. 13). Observers offer different arguments to explain the negative correlation between democracy and Islamic populations (−.38). See, for example, Sharabi, Hisham, Neopatriarchy: A Theory of Distorted Change in Arab Society (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988)Google Scholar; Lewis, Bernard, “Islam and Liberal Democracy,” Atlantic Monthly 271 (February 1993)Google Scholar; and Michael Hudson, “The Political Culture Approach to Arab Democratization: The Case for Bringing It Back In, Carefully,” in Brynen, Korany, and Noble (fn. 36). Although they are negatively correlated for the period covered by this data set (1971–97), it is not obvious that they will continue to be negatively correlated in the future. Two states with large Islamic populations, Nigeria and Indonesia, have recendy moved toward democracy, and some of the most important prodemocracy forces in other Islamic states (including Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, and Malaysia) are often classified as Islamic “traditionalists” or “fundamentalists.” It is instructive to recall that until the “third wave” of democratization began in the mid-1970s, democracy and Catholicism were negatively correlated.

⁴⁹ See Burkhart and Lewis-Beck (fn. 45); Londregan and Poole (fn. 43); Przeworski and Limongi (fn. 2).

⁵⁰ See Moore (fn. 28).

⁵¹ See Lipset (fn. 38); Huntington (fn. 10).

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⁵³ See Wallerstein, Immanuel, The Modern World-System (New York: Academic Press, 1974)Google Scholar; Bollen (fn. 15); Burkhart and Lewis-Beck (fn. 45).

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⁵⁵ Beck and Katz (fn. 54) recommend using ordinary least squares with “panel-corrected standard errors” when working with panel data if the number of units is less than the number of time points. In this data set the number of units (113) exceeds the number of time points (27).

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⁵⁷ Most of the coefficients for the year dummies ate also significant: for years 1971–89 the coefficients are negative and range from marginally to highly significant; for 1990 the coefficient is negative but not significant, and for years 1991–96 the coefficients are positive, although all but one (1994) are not significant.

⁵⁸ These results were unaffected by the inclusion of other variables that are sometimes significant in democracy regressions, including educational attainment, status as a former British colony, Catholic population, and trade openness. Only the last variable was significant. When run with a random-effects process, a Hausman test produces a chi² of 466 and a P value of 0.000. When run with a fixed-effects process, however, none of the right-hand-side variables—except for the lagged dependent variable and Log Income—are significant.

⁵⁹ These effects occur because Income is entered in the model as a logarithmic function and because an oil discovery will influence both the numerator and the denominator in the Oil variable.

⁶⁰ See Achen (fn. 56).

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⁶² Of course, a larger budget may not be the only cause of such government actions, but it is the only cause that can be linked to resource wealth in an obvious way.

⁶³ The Minerals variable is not significant in this sample, making it difficult to draw inferences about the mineral-exporting states.

⁶⁴ Note that other studies have found that a government's reliance on personal and corporate tax revenues is strongly and negatively influenced by per capita income: poor states tend to rely on trade taxes, rich ones on personal and corporate taxes. See Easterly, William and Rebelo, Sergio, “Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth,” Journal of Monetary Economics 32 (December 1993)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Zee, Howell H., “Empirics of Cross-Country Tax Revenue Comparisons,” World Development 24 (October 1996).CrossRefGoogle Scholar Since percapita income is included in the model, the actual effect of Taxes on regime types is probably larger than the coefficient in this regression suggests.

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⁶⁶ Since the data cover only eleven years, the maximum number of possible observations for these regressions drops from 3,752 to 1,642.

⁶⁷ Lerner, Daniel, The Passing of Traditional Society (New YorkFree Press, 1958)Google Scholar; Deutsch (fn. 38).

⁶⁸ Inglehart (fn. 1).

⁶⁹ Lipset (fn. 38).

⁷⁰ Neither Oil nor Minerals is significantly correlated with democracy in these reduced samples, which makes it hard to be confident about these results. When Oil and Minerals are regressed on each of the four variables for occupational specialization (with Income and Islam included as control variables), the results are mixed: Oil is negatively correlated with Men in Industry but positively correlated with Women in Industry; Minerals is not significantly correlated with Men in Industry and is negatively, but weakly, linked to Women in Industry.

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⁷² Gurr and Jaggers (fn. 42)

⁷³ Londregan and Poole (fn. 43).

⁷⁴ Summers and Heston (fn. 61).

⁷⁵ Sachs and Warner (fn. 3, 1999).

⁷⁶ Ibid.

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