Hostname: page-component-7b7567c8c-fvjsw Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-11-14T16:20:05.883Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Popularity of Authoritarian Leaders

A Cross-National Investigation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 September 2020

Sergei Guriev and
Daniel TreismanOpen the ORCID record for Daniel Treisman[Opens in a new window]
Get access

Abstract

How do citizens in authoritarian states feel about their leaders? While some dictators rule through terror, others seem genuinely popular. Using the Gallup World Poll’s panel of more than one hundred-forty countries in 2006–2016, the authors show that the drivers of political approval differ across regime types. Although brutal repression in overt dictatorships could cause respondents to falsify their preferences, in milder informational autocracies, greater repression actually predicts lower approval. In autocracies as in democracies, economic performance matters and citizens’ economic perceptions, while not perfectly accurate, track objective indicators. Dictators also benefit from greater perceived public safety, but the authors find no such effect in democracies. Covert censorship of the media and the Internet is associated with higher approval in autocracies—in particular, in informational ones—but ratings fall when citizens recognize censorship. In informational autocracies, executive elections trigger a ratings surge if there is leader turnover, but, unlike in democracies, reelected autocrats enjoy little honeymoon.

Keywords

authoritarianismcensorshipdictatorshippublic opinion

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 72 , Issue 4 , October 2020, pp. 601 - 638
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Adena, Maja, Enikolopov, Ruben, Petrova, Maria, Santarosa, Veronica, and Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina. 2015. “Radio and the Rise of the Nazis in Prewar Germany.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, no. 4: 1885–939. doi: 10.1093/qje/qjv030.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arce, Moisés. 2003. “Political Violence and Presidential Approval in Peru.” Journal of Politics 65, no. 2: 572–83. doi: 10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arellano, Manuel, and Bover, Olympia. 1995. “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models.” Journal of Econometrics 68, no. 1: 29–51. doi: 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arendt, Hannah. 1968. The Origins of Totalitarianism. New York, N.Y.: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.Google Scholar
Bellin, Eva. 2012. “Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Lessons from the Arab Spring.” Comparative Politics 44, no. 2: 127–49. doi: 10.5129/001041512798838021.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blair, Graeme, Alexander, Coppock, and Moor, Margaret. 2020. “When to Worry About Sensitivity Bias: A Social Reference Theory and Evidence from 30 Years of List Experiments.” American Political Science Review: 1–19. doi: 10.1017/S0003055420000374.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blaydes, Lisa. 2010. Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak’s Egypt. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blundell, Richard, and Bond, Stephen. 1998. “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.” Journal of Econometrics 87, no. 1: 115–43. doi: 10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bond, Stephen R., Céline, Nauges, and Windmeijer, Frank. 2005. “Unit Roots: Identification and Testing in Micro Panels.” CENMAP Working Paper no. CWP07/05. London, UK: Center for Microdata, Methods and Practice. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.757316.Google Scholar
Brody, Richard A. 1991. Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Buendía, Jorge. 1996. “Economic Reform, Public Opinion, and Presidential Approval in Mexico, 1988–1993.” Comparative Political Studies 29, no. 5: 566–91. doi: 10.1177/0010414096029005004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2010. “Regime Change and Revolutionary Entrepreneurs.” American Political Science Review 104, no. 3: 446–66. doi: 10.1017/S0003055410000274.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, Brett L., and Carter, Erin Baggott. 2016. “Propaganda and Protest: Evidence from Post-Cold War Africa.” At https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Propaganda-and-Protest-%3A-Evidence-from-Post-Cold-%E2%88%97-Carter-Carter/18b6c39eb34bc84d922773db6ee7f3b5e20f9c81, accessed August 13, 2020.Google Scholar
Center for Systemic Peace. 2016. The Polity Project. At http://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html, accessed August 13, 2020.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., and Stewart, Marianne C.. 1995. “Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support: Rival Models Reconsidered.” British Journal of Political Science 25, no. 2: 145–70. doi: 10.1017/S0007123400007134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., and Lebo, Matthew. 2003. “Fractional (Co)integration and Governing Party Support in Britain.” British Journal of Political Science 33, no. 2: 283–301. doi: 10.1017/S0007123403000127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conley, Richard S. 2006. “From Elysian Fields to the Guillotine? The Dynamics of Presidential and Prime Ministerial Approval in Fifth Republic France.” Comparative Political Studies 39, no. 5: 570–98. doi: 10.1177/0010414005276313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coppedge, Michael, Gerring, John, Lindberg, Staffan I., and Skaaning, Svend-Erik. 2016. “V-Dem Codebook v6.” Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. University of Gothenburg, V-Dem Institute, and University of Notre Dame, Kellogg Institute. At https://www.v-dem.net/files/42/Codebookv6.pdf, ac cessed August 13, 2020.Google Scholar
Deaton, Angus. 2008. “Income, Health, and Well-being around the World: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22, no. 2: 53–72. doi: 10.1257/jep.22.2.53.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Diamond, Larry. 2002. “Thinking About Hybrid Regimes.” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2: 21–35. doi: 10.1353/jod.2002.0025.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, Larry, and Plattner, Marc F.. 2010. “Liberation Technology.” Journal of Democracy 21, no. 3: 69–83. doi: 10.1353/jod.0.0190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Egorov, Georgy, and Konstantin, Sonin. Forthcoming. “Elections in Non-Democracies.” Economic Journal.Google Scholar
Eichenberg, Richard C., Stoll, Richard J., and Lebo, Matthew. 2006. “War President: The Approval Ratings of George W. Bush.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50, no. 6: 783–808. doi: 10.1177/0022002706293671.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellul, Jacques. 1965. Propaganda: The Formation of Men’s Attitudes. New York, N.Y.: Alfred A. Knopf.Google Scholar
Enikolopov, Ruben, Petrova, Maria, and Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina. 2011. “Media and Political Persuasion: Evidence from Russia.” American Economic Review 101, no. 7: 3253–85. doi: 10.1257/aer.101.7.3253.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B., and Stimson, James A.. 2002. The Macro Polity. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Frye, Timothy, Gehlbach, Scott, Marquardt, Kyle L., and Reuter, Ora John. 2017. “Is Putin’s Popularity Real?” Post-Soviet Affairs 33, no. 1: 1–15. doi: 10.1080/1060586X.2016.1144334.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Lust-Okar, Ellen. 2009. “Elections under Authoritarianism.” Annual Review of Political Science 12: 403–22. doi: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060106.095434.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gasper, John T., and Reeves, Andrew. 2011. “Make it Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters.” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2: 340–55. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00503.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 2005. “Why Parties and Elections in Authoritarian Regimes?” Paper presented the American Political Science Association annual meeting. Washington D.C. At http://www.daniellazar.com/wp-content/uploads/authoritarian-elections.doc, accessed August 13, 2020.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara, Wright, Joseph, and Frantz, Erica. 2018. How Dictatorships Work: Power, Personalization, and Collapse. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Barbara, and Zaller, John. 1989. “Sources of Popular Support for Authoritarian Regimes.” American Journal of Political Science 33, no. 2: 319–47. doi: 10.2307/2111150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gehlbach, Scott, and Sonin, Konstantin. 2014. “Government Control of the Media.” Journal of Public Economics 118, October: 163–71. doi: 10.1016/i.ipubeco.2014.06.004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibney, Mark, Cornett, Linda, Wood, Reed, Haschke, Peter, and Arnon, Daniel. 2016. The Political Terror Scale 1976–2015 Database. At http://www.politicalterrorscale.org, accessed August 13, 2020.Google Scholar
Gunitsky, Seva. 2015. “Corrupting the Cyber-Commons: Social Media as a Tool of Autocratic Stability.” Perspectives on Politics 13, no. 1: 42–54. doi: 10.1017/S1537592714003120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guriev, Sergei and Treisman, Daniel. 2019. “Informational Autocrats.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 33, no. 4: 100–27. doi: 10.1257/jep.33.4.100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guriev, Sergei, and Treisman, Daniel. 2020a. “Replication data for: The Popularity of Authoritarian Leaders: A Cross-National Investigation.” Harvard Dataverse, V1. doi: 10.7910/DVN/8NGKDS.Google Scholar
Sergei, Guriev and Treisman, Daniel. 2020b. “Supplementary material for: The Popularity of Authoritarian Leaders: A Cross-National Investigation.” doi: 10.1017/S0043887120000167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guriev, Sergei and Treisman, Daniel. 2020c. “A Theory of Informational Autocracy.” Journal of Public Economics 186, June. doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104158.Google Scholar
Honaker, James, and King, Gary. 2010. “What to Do about Missing Values in Time-Series Cross-Section Data.” American Journal of Political Science 54, no. 2: 561–81. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00447.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Honaker, James, King, Gary, and Blackwell, Matthew. 2011. “Amelia II: A Program for Missing Data.” Journal of Statistical Software 45, no. 7: 1–47. doi: 10.18637/jss.v045.i07.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hyde, Susan D., and Marinov, Nikolay. 2012. “Which Elections Can Be Lost?” Political Analysis 20, no. 2: 191–210. doi: 10.1093/pan/mpr040.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Benjamin F., and Olken, Benjamin A.. 2005. “Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth since World War II.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120, no. 3: 835–64. doi: 10.1093/qje/120.3.835.Google Scholar
Jones, Benjamin F., and Olken, Benjamin A.. 2009. “Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, no. 2: 55–87. doi: 10.1257/mac.1.2.55.Google Scholar
Kakkar, Hemant, and Sivanathan, Niro. 2017. “When the Appeal of a Dominant Leader is Greater than a Prestige Leader.” PNAS June 27, 114, no. 26: 6734–39. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1617711114.Google ScholarPubMed
Kelly, Jana Morgan. 2003. “Counting on the Past or Investing in the Future? Economic and Political Accountability in Fujimori’s Peru.” Journal of Politics 65, no. 3: 864–80. doi: 10.1111/1468-2508.00216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kern, Holger Lutz, and Hainmueller, Jens. 2009. “Opium for the Masses: How Foreign Media Can Stabilize Authoritarian Regimes.” Political Analysis 17, no. 4: 377–99. doi: 10.1093/pan/mpp017.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, Pan, Jennifer, and Roberts, Margaret E.. 2013. “How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression.” American Political Science Review 107, no. 2: 326–43. doi: 10.1017/S0003055413000014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1991. “Now out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989.” World Politics 44, no. 1 (October): 7–48. doi: 10.2307/2010422.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ladd, Jonathan McDonald. 2007. “Predispositions and Public Support for the President during the War on Terrorism.” Public Opinion Quarterly 71, no. 4: 511–38. doi: 10.1093/poq/nfm033.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Way, Lucan A.. 2010. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Little, Andrew T. 2017. “Propaganda and Credulity.” Games and Economic Behavior 102, March: 224–32. doi: 10.1016/j.geb.2016.12.006.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipman, Maria, Kachkaeva, Anna, and Poyker, Michael. 2018. “Media in Russia: Between Modernization and Monopoly.” In Treisman, Daniel, ed., The New Autocracy: Information, Politics, and Policy in Putin’s Russia. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Lorentzen, Peter. 2014. “China’s Strategic Censorship.” American Journal of Political Science 58, no. 2: 402–14. doi: 10.1111/ajps.12065.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2006. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miner, Luke. 2015. “The Unintended Consequences of Internet Diffusion: Evidence from Malaysia.” Journal of Public Economics 132, December: 66–78. doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.10.002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mishler, William, and Willerton, John P.. 2003. “The Dynamics of Presidential Popularity in Post-Communist Russia: Cultural Imperative versus Neo-Institutional Choice?” Journal of Politics 65, no. 1: 111–41. doi: 10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00006.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth, and Petersen, Thomas. 2004. “The Spiral of Silence and the Social Nature of Man.” In Lee Kaid, Lynda, ed., Handbook of Political Communication Research. New York, N.Y.: Routledge: 339–56.Google Scholar
Overy, Richard. 2004. The Dictators: Hitler’s Germany, Stalins Russia. New York, N.Y.: W. W. Norton &. Company.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Remmer, Karen L. 2012. “The Rise of Leftist-Populist Governance in Latin America: The Roots of Electoral Change.” Comparative Political Studies 45, no. 8: 947–72. doi: 10.1177/0010414011428595.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, Margaret E. 2018. Censored: Distraction and Diversion inside China’s Great Firewall. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Roodman, David. 2009. “How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to Difference and System gmm in STATA.” Stata Journal 9, no. 1: 86–136. doi: 10.1177/1536867X0900900106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rozenas, Arturas, and Stukal, Denis. 2019. “How Autocrats Manipulate Economic News: Evidence from Russia’s State-Controlled Television.” Journal of Politics 81, no. 3: 982–96. doi: 10.1086/703208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rubin, Donald. 1987. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. New York, N.Y.: Wiley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanders, David. 2000. “The Real Economy and the Perceived Economy in Popularity Functions: How Much Do Voters Need to Know? A Study of British Data, 1974–97.” Electoral Studies 19, no. 2–3: 275–94. doi: 10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00052-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanovich, Sergey, Stukal, Denis, and Tucker, Joshua A.. 2018. “Turning the Virtual Tables: Government Strategies for Addressing Online Opposition with an Application to Russia.” Comparative Politics 50, no. 3: 435–82. doi: 10.5129/001041518822704890.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schedler, Andreas, ed. 2006. Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Simpser, Alberto. 2013. Why Governments and Parties Manipulate Elections: Theory, Practice, and Implications. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spooner, Mary Helen. 1999. Soldiers in a Narrow Land: The Pinochet Regime in Chile. Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Stevenson, Betsey, and Wolfers, Justin. 2011. “Trust in Public Institutions over the Business Cycle.” American Economic Review 101, no. 3: 281–87. doi: 10.1257/aer.101.3.281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stokes, Susan C. 1996. “Economic Reform and Public Opinion in Peru, 1990–1995.” Comparative Political Studies 29, no. 5: 544–65. doi: 10.1177/0010414096029005003.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutton, Jonathan, Butcher, Charles, and Svensson, Isak. 2014. “Explaining Political Jiu-Jitsu: Institution-Building and the Outcomes of Regime Violence against Unarmed Protests.” Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 5: 559–73. doi: 10.1177/0022343314531004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2012. The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tortora, Robert D., Rajesh, Srinivasan, and Esipova, Neli. 2010. “The Gallup World Poll.” In Janet Harkness, Michael Braun, Brad Edwards, Timothy P. Johnson, Lars Lyberg, Peter Ph. Mohler, Beth-Ellen Pennell, and Tom W. Smith, eds., Survey Methods in Multinational, Multiregional, and Multicultural Contexts. Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons: 535–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Treisman, Daniel. 2011. The Return: Russia’s Journey from Gorbachev to Medvedev. New York, N.Y.: Free Press.Google Scholar
Villarreal, Andrés. 1999. “Public Opinion of the Economy and the President among Mexico City Residents: The Salinas Sexenio.” Latin American Research Review 34, no. 2: 132–51. At https://www.jstor.org/stable/2503915.Google Scholar
Weyland, Kurt. 2000. “A Paradox of Success? Determinants of Political Support for President Fujimori.” International Studies Quarterly 44, no. 3: 481–502. doi: 10.1111/0020-8833.00168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weyland, Kurt. 2006. “The Rise and Decline of Fujimori’s Neopopulist Leadership.” In Carrión, Julio F., ed., The Fujimori Legacy: The Rise of Electoral Authoritarianism in Peru, University Park, Penn.: Penn State University Press: 13–38.Google Scholar
Worchel, Stephen, and Arnold, Susan E.. 1973. “The Effects of Censorship and Attractiveness of the Censor on Attitude Change.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 9, no. 4: 365–77. doi: 10.1016/0022-1031(73)90072-3.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Guriev and Treisman Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/8NGKDS
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Guriev and Treisman supplementary material

Appendix

Download Guriev and Treisman supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 1.5 MB