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Understanding the patchy distribution of four-horned antelope Tetracerus quadricornis in a tropical dry deciduous forest in Central India

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 November 2013

Koustubh Sharma*
Affiliation:
Snow Leopard Trust, 4649 Sunnyside Avenue, North Suite #325, Seattle WA98103, USA Bombay Natural History Society, Hornbill House, Shahid Bhagat Singh Road, Mumbai 400001, India Nature Conservation Foundation, 3076/5, 4th Cross, Gokulam Park, Mysore 570002, India
Raghunandan Singh Chundawat
Affiliation:
Baagh Aap Aur Van, S-17 Panchsheel Apartments, A-1 Block, Panchsheel Enclave, New Delhi 110017, India
Joanna Van Gruisen
Affiliation:
Baagh Aap Aur Van, S-17 Panchsheel Apartments, A-1 Block, Panchsheel Enclave, New Delhi 110017, India
Asad Rafi Rahmani
Affiliation:
Bombay Natural History Society, Hornbill House, Shahid Bhagat Singh Road, Mumbai 400001, India
*
1Corresponding author. Email: koustubhsharma@gmail.com
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Abstract:

At the landscape level, the four-horned antelope is confined to tropical dry deciduous forests and within these, their distribution is patchy. Various factors have been proposed as determinants for their patchy distribution within landscapes, but none provided an adequate explanation. We hypothesized that availability of a constant supply of forage influenced the species distribution. We found that the four-horned antelope mainly fed on fruits and flowers, and that a total of 60% of the tree species in Panna Tiger Reserve bore fruits at different times of the year. High tree species richness in habitat patches was considered a surrogate for constant supply of forage for the four-horned antelope. Data from 547 sighting locations between 2002 and 2006 and six spatial layers were analysed using maximum entropy to produce a probability distribution model for the four-horned antelope in Panna Tiger Reserve. Our model predicted that habitat patches summing up to only 9.5% of the 543 km2 of Panna Tiger Reserve had high probability of distribution (>0.5) of four-horned antelope. Although all variables contributed to the distribution model of the four-horned antelope, explanatory power was highest for tree species richness within habitat patches. The distribution of four-horned antelope within tropical dry deciduous forests can be treated as an indicator of high tree diversity and hence habitat quality.

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Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 
Figure 0

Figure 1. Temporal (fortnightly) availability of fruits and flowers from trees in Panna Tiger Reserve, India estimated as the number of tree species bearing fruits or flowers at any point in time.

Figure 1

Figure 2. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for sensitivity vs. false positive rates (1-specificity) for randomized training data using all sightings (a) as well as sightings on foot (b) of the four-horned antelope in Panna Tiger Reserve. Both datasets provided a good fit denoted by the area under the curve with values close to 1 (AUCall = 0.946, AUCfoot = 0.966).

Figure 2

Figure 3. Jack-knife test to assess the relative importance of variables for the models based on sightings of four-horned antelope in Panna Tiger Reserve only on foot transects (a) and all sighting including foot transects and other random encounters (b). Areas under the curve were compared for model outputs with and without one of the six variables, and with all variables used together. The variables compared included habitat classes (Habitat), grazing pressure (Grazing), distance from nearest water body (Water), terrain slope (Slope), tree species richness (Specrich) and isotherm (Temp).

Figure 3

Figure 4. Response curve plots reflecting the dependence of predicted habitat suitability of four-horned antelope in Panna Tiger Reserve, both on the selected variable and on dependencies induced by correlations between the selected variable and other variables. Each curve represents a Maxent model created using only the corresponding variable. In case of habitat class (a), each number represented a particular habitat class (1 = water, 2 = disturbed, 3 = gladed mixed forest, 4 = dense miscellaneous forest, 5 = open, 6 = mixed thorn forest, 7 = miscellaneous forest, 8 = mixed forest with dense understorey, 9 = scrub, 10 = grassland and 11 = cloud), whereas the units for continuous variables are the respective z-scores of grazing pressure (b), distance (m) from nearest water body (c), terrain slope in degrees (d), tree species richness (e), and isotherm in °C (f).

Figure 4

Figure 5. Model output highlighting the areas with high predicted probability of presence (P >0.5) of the four-horned antelope (4HA) in Panna Tiger Reserve, India, depicted in black.

Figure 5

Appendix 1. Naïve and corrected proportion of four-horned antelope sightings across different grass heights in Panna Tiger Reserve. Corrected number of sightings obtained with the help of detection probability estimated across different grass heights using distance sampling.