This well-documented book is a major contribution to the study of governance and economics in Ethiopia. Belay Seyoum provides an in-depth analysis of Ethiopia's state fragility and economy against the background of relevant issues of governance, education, the legal framework and technological developments. The account frequently refers to the country's tumultuous political life. Indeed, Ethiopia's instability and strongly autocratic regimes since the 1960s have always stood in the way of gradualist, harmonious development, not in the least due to exclusivist elite politics. The role of elites in governance is emphasised, notably in chapter 1. Apart from discussing Ethiopia in detail, this book is also a general study on problems of state fragility and dilemmas of state and economic performance on a more global scale.
Part 1 of the book is on ‘State Fragility and Institutions’, part 2 on ‘State Fragility and Business Development’ and part 3 on ‘Education, Technology Policy and Lessons from Successful Developing Countries’, with comparative profiles of developmental paths in China, South Korea, Malaysia and Brazil. The importance of the analyses is enhanced by theoretical overviews introducing each chapter. In part 1, Ethiopia's state fragility and lack of capacity in carrying out basic governance functions for the citizenry is the recurring theme. The author contends that state fragility grew, due to state-generated problems of social cohesion – with society more fractured into (ethnic) groups with ‘opposing identities who see their struggles as a zero-sum game’. This was enhanced in Ethiopia under the EPRDF party (1991–2018), based on the political-constitutional model of ‘ethnic-based federalism’ under a (Tigrayan) minority elite. Despite significant economic growth in that period, it aggravated national fragmentation. After April 2018 the same political model stayed in place, despite a reformist reset by the new leadership under PM Abiy Ahmed. In chapter 3, the author emphasises that a lack of strong and efficient institutions in Ethiopia has negatively impacted economic development, public trust and national cohesion for many decades.
The author's criticisms on the record of the ruling parties EPRDF and Prosperity Party in the period 1991–2023 are quite harsh. While often justified – e.g., regarding the dubious constitutional causes, economic inequalities, rapidly declining human rights record, utter lack of security in many parts of the country and mismanagement of the TPLF-initiated war in the North from November 2020 to November 2022 – they are not always tied to the primarily institutional and economic analysis that the author intends to make.
The chapters on business development and state fragility in part 2 show the effects of weak institutions and state fragility on economic life, both in general and in Ethiopia. The author discusses the prospects of industrialisation, foreign direct investment and the importance of services, private-entrepreneurship and domestic investment – all still weak in Ethiopia. Chapter 5 focuses on the potentially transformative role of industrialisation in developing countries, reviewing various industrial policy scenarios. Obviously, these issues face problems in a fragile state such as Ethiopia.
Part 3 is on factors that might reduce state fragility and enhance overall economic development in aspiring developing countries: education and technology policy. Again, education in fragile states is precarious, but whether states are fragile in part because of failing education and its often aggravating group distinctions or the other way around, is a moot point. In Ethiopia, educational coverage has grown significantly in the past 30 years, but its quality leaves much to be desired and has also enhanced (ethnic) group-fragmentation. Chapter 8 discusses this in detail but has little on the connection of the effects of (substandard) education with economic performance. The last chapter presents profiles of four successful developing countries mentioned above, but it is not clear what specific lessons these cases carry for Ethiopia's development. It is left to the reader to draw general conclusions about the theme of state fragility and economic performance in Africa/Ethiopia in the light of the book's findings, because a concluding chapter is lacking.
The lists of suggestions and recommendations at the end of each chapter are pertinent on an abstract level, but perhaps too normative and not always related to context and realities. It is also an illusion to think that policy-makers in Ethiopia will take them to heart.
Nevertheless, this book is a major achievement and an essential addition to the literature on Ethiopia's economy and governance. While it has a good index (pp. 443–465), there is unfortunately no unified bibliography: each of the chapters has its own list of references. This is perhaps a (too) long book, but the chapters can be separately consulted. All in all, it's a rich, fascinating and important work: an essential reading to understand contemporary Ethiopia's persistent economic and institutional problems in the wider context of both domestic and global developments.