The Time-for-Change Model proved one of the most accurate of the 2008 presidential election forecasts run in the October PS symposium. Using three predictors—the president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of real GDP during the second quarter, and the time-for-change dummy variable—the model predicted that Barack Obama would win the presidential election with 54.3% of the major-party vote. According to nearly final tabulations compiled by uselections.org, as of December 8, Obama has received just over 53.6% of the major-party vote. However, it is likely that Obama's final total will reach 53.7% of the major-party vote. Therefore, the model's current error of 0.9 percentage points is likely to decrease further. The model has now correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all six presidential elections since its creation in 1988.

Looking forward to 2012, the Time-for-Change Model gives President Obama an excellent chance of winning reelection because this will be a first-term election for the Democratic incumbent. Only one first-term incumbent has been defeated in the past century. If President Obama can produce decent economic growth by the spring quarter of 2012, and if his approval rating is above 50%, he will be a strong favorite to win a second term.