This edited volume on the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq is a genuinely honest effort at tackling the difficult issues currently confronting Kurdistan. From the outset, the editors (two of whom worked for the advisory board set up by the Kurdistan Regional Government) acknowledge that this work “is not neutral. It takes the existence of Kurdistan as a political entity as a desirable given”(i), and most of the authors adopt a sympathetic approach to Kurdistan and the Kurds of Iraq.
This is not to say, however, that the authors of the different articles are all of the same mind. In fact, there is a healthy dose of disagreement. Much of the book is prescriptive: Many of the authors analyze the different configurations best applicable to Iraqi Kurdistan. Whereas most of the authors see a robust autonomous region within Iraq, Gareth Stansfield argues that past divisions among the Kurdish groups will ultimately translate into a divided Iraqi Kurdistan.
The book's strength lies mostly in the discussion of future arrangements, primarily variations on federalism and the difficulties that Iraq encounters as a result of the poor planning that went into the U.S.-led invasion in the first place. The Future of Kurdistan in Iraq, it must be stressed, was finished before the landmark elections in 2005 that approved the constitution and elected a new parliament. Hence, the main reference point for the articles is the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL) that came to represent an interim constitution. At the time of writing, the authors were unsure of how many of the TAL's provisions would be translated into the final constitution, especially the ones concerning the future of the Kurdish region. In fact, the 2005 constitution did refer to the TAL for many of its provisions, including those relating to the future of Kirkuk, the oil-rich city that the Kurds have made clear ought to be part of the future Kurdistan territory.
The TAL had stipulated that Iraq would be a federation. Some in Iraq have rejected the concept of federation entirely but, even more problematically, there are many forms that federalism could take and no agreement on which is the best for Iraq. Brendan O'Leary's discussion of the various forms of federalism is particularly well done and is instructive, especially as he introduces nuances and concepts (such as a federacy) that are critical to understanding the way a future Kurdistan can and would relate to a variety of arrangements that Baghdad could present.
It is also important to understand what the people of Kurdistan themselves desire for their political future. Thus, Sophia Wanche's chapter looks at the different federal options and how they relate to the population's wishes. If independence is desired by virtually all Kurds in northern Iraq, as she argues, this desire is tempered by realpolitik and the strategic circumstances that define Kurdistan's geopolitics. Still, the Kurds are unlikely to agree to anything less than a robust federal structure that ensures their separate identity. They have been dedicated to this since the early 1990s, and the United States committed itself to this idea during the 1998 cease-fire negotiations between the two main Kurdish factions, the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).
John McGarry's discussion of the lessons Canada can (and cannot) offer Iraq is also particularly instructive. Given that Canada is an ethnic federation that has two significant and distinct nationalities and that French, as with Kurdish, is recognized as an official national language, one is tempted to use Canada as a model for understanding the situation in Iraq. The ethnic dimension suggests that Canada has more in common with Iraq than other examples of federalism often advanced, including that of the United States. In other words, Kurdistan is to Iraq what Quebec is to Canada. Yet McGarry argues that undeniable political stability—secured by long-standing and well-established institutional rules—in Canada undermines the comparison often drawn between the two cases.
In the years that have elapsed since the writing of this book, the situation in Iraq has gone from bad to worse, and most importantly, further progress on the final shape of the internal federal boundaries has remained elusive. Peter Galbraith (an acute observer of these developments) and Karin von Hippel elaborate on the lessons learned in the year and a half that had elapsed since the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime in Baghdad. Some of the arguments advanced by Galbraith remain valid today. The closer the new Iraq comes to satisfying the basic national desires of its Kurdish citizens through a federal structure, the likelier it is that the Kurdish Regional Government will stay in the union and that Iraq will remain unified. Kurdish PUK leader Jalal Talabani's ascension to the presidency of Iraq has somewhat solidified the Kurds' links with the central government. Talabani has proven to be much less sectarian in Baghdad's politics than his Sunni and Shia interlocutors. The principal authors of this book would have been very satisfied to see Talabani in the president's role, as it would have vindicated some of their recommendations regarding the construction of a just federal arrangement. A federation that truly recognizes the distinctiveness of the Kurds would go a long way to ensuring that they do not secede. President Talabani and other Kurdish politicians in Baghdad have, for the most part, acted as Iraqis first and Kurds second; Kurds are not secessionists by nature.
As with many edited books, this volume suffers from the unevenness of its chapters. It also would have benefited from the inclusion of a chapter on the relationship between Kurdistan and Iran to parallel the chapter on Turkey. Yet such shortcomings notwithstanding, this book is useful in that it provides both analysis and policy guidance. In its dispensation of advice, it subjects itself to an immediate test of relevancy. So far, it has stood the test of time well. The main lesson is that Iraq can remain united if and only if Kurdish aspirations are realized within an internationally recognized federal pact that at the very least will ensure a modicum of democratic governance in the future federal state of Kurdistan.
