Why do some ethnic movements choose to resort to armed violence, whereas others focus on nonviolent means of resistance? Why did disadvantaged ethnic groups in Côte d’Ivoire fight a bloody civil war, while indigenous communities in Ecuador peacefully campaigned for greater rights and recognition? Much of the existing literature examines civil war and nonviolent protest separately, although there is a growing body of work that addresses various forms of contention and the choice between the two. This fantastic book by Manuel Vogt adds to this literature by offering a compelling theory and careful empirical analyses to develop a comprehensive study of violent and nonviolent ethnic mobilization.

The core of the argument is that patterns of European colonialism significantly affect ethnic relations to this day. In colonial settler states, large numbers of European migrants and their descendants created an ethnic hierarchy with white settlers at the top and with the indigenous community politically marginalized and economically disadvantaged. Many Latin American countries are “settler states,” in which a European and mestizo elite controlled post-independence institutions, but so are South Africa and Zimbabwe (Rhodesia). By contrast, in “decolonized states,” which are mostly in Africa, relatively equal ethnic communities vied for power and influence following the retreat of European powers. In countries without significant European settlement, no single group could claim absolute control of the state after independence.

A purely grievance-based explanation would predict that indigenous communities in Latin America would be most likely to resort to armed conflict given generations of economic, political, and social discrimination. Yet, Vogt adds insights from resource mobilization and political opportunity theories of contentious politics to argue the opposite. Settler colonialism led to stable between-group hierarchies and to considerable social integration through assimilation into the dominant linguistic and religious tradition. In contrast, decolonized states in Africa largely consist of segmented ethnic groups, who live in zones separated by geography, language, and often religion. This has made it much harder for poor indigenous communities in settler states to successfully mobilize the resources necessary for armed violence, particularly as the coercive capabilities of the state rest firmly in the hands of elites of European descent. By contrast, equally matched segmented groups in Africa are more likely to be caught in a bitter struggle over dominance of state institutions.

Therefore, Vogt hypothesizes that civil war is more likely in decolonized states, whereas peaceful activism will be more prevalent in settler states. Although this aspect of the theory is a macro-historical, structural argument, he also offers a micro theory of how these conditions shape the strategies of ethnopolitical organizations and the outcomes of mobilization. Ethnic organizations are more likely to fight armed contests for political dominance in segmented, unranked societies, whereas they are more likely to mobilize for emancipation and political inclusion in highly stratified societies. Although it is commendable that Vogt attempts to offer some micro-foundations to his theory, this argument still seems to suggest that macro-level patterns of ethnic relations play a determining role in shaping organizational strategies.

Perhaps the most impressive aspect of this book is its empirical analysis. Vogt combines large-N statistical techniques using a variety of data sources with several months of fieldwork in Latin America and Africa. The first empirical chapter (chap. 4) offers a global analysis of armed conflict onset, armed conflict intensity, and group protest. Although the core of the theory focuses on patterns of decolonization, the book also offers insights for other multiethnic states, such as the titular nation-states of Eurasia. He argues that their systems of ethnic relations should most resemble the decolonized (i.e., nonsettler) states. The analysis offers convincing evidence that armed conflict is most likely (and more severe) in decolonized states, followed by other multiethnic states, with the settler countries being least likely to experience civil war. Instead, this last set of countries is marked by more frequent protest. Vogt also successfully rules out alternative explanations, such as years since independence. Finally, he delves into the mechanisms behind the theory by incorporating data on years of ethnic dominance and the degree of linguistic segmentation between groups to directly test his argument regarding ethnic hierarchies and group integration.

The subsequent empirical chapters focus on Africa and Latin America through a combination of statistical and case-study analyses, backed by months of field research and elite interviews. Chapter 5 examines the role of political parties in Africa in attaining and preserving ethnic dominance. Vogt observes that ethnic parties in Africa are often connected to military mobilization efforts and that groups with strong parties are more likely included in government. The following chapter compares Côte d’Ivoire, where the bitter rivalry between northern Muslim groups and southern Mandé peoples led to a civil war, with Gabon, which did not experience armed violence. Following independence in Gabon, a broad, multiethnic political alliance between elites forestalled conflict, whereas highly segmented parties in Côte d’Ivoire contributed to conflict as the country began to democratize.

The chapters on Latin America examine nonviolent mobilization by ethnic parties and civil society organizations. The statistical analysis demonstrates that the involvement of parties and NGOs representing ethnic groups leads to greater levels of protest and subsequent political inclusion of indigenous and African-descendant groups, particularly as the state begins to democratize. Rather than seeking dominance of the political system, these movements help promote equality. The final empirical chapter presents evidence from Guatemala and Ecuador, also locations where Vogt conducted extensive field research. Compared to Ecuador, indigenous communities in Guatemala have achieved far more modest gains. Vogt attributes this to resistance from traditional elites and divisions between ethnic organizations. In Ecuador, groups representing the indigenous community have been far more successful in mobilizing for protest, strategizing elections, and forming alliances with political parties.

Although the case studies provide rich detail, they do present a number of loose ends that are not fully articulated in Vogt’s theoretical chapters. Several additional factors emerge in the cases, such as intra-movement splits, the role of democratization, elite networks, and the potential for co-optation, which play a large role in explaining the dynamics of ethnic politics. Moving between a structural theory of group relations and a micro-level analysis of organizational strategy, as well as between large-N statistical analysis and case studies, is admittedly an ambitious task. As such, not all of the pieces of the puzzle fit neatly together in a single, coherent package. The book will most likely be remembered for its structural focus on patterns of colonization; yet, it still manages to offer a quite impressive and insightful look into ethnic contention across a variety of contexts.

Readers interested in ethnic conflict, civil war, and nonviolent protest will find Mobilization and Conflict in Multiethnic States to be a fantastic addition to their bookshelves. Manuel Vogt’s work will certainly spark renewed attention to the historical legacies of colonialism and how they influence current politics. The circumstances under which decolonization occurred and new states were born look very different across contexts, and these differences go a long way in explaining how groups relate to one another today. By drawing attention to these differences, this book adds significant depth to the literature on ethnic politics.