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Defining the “Critical Casualty” through Reference-Standard Constructs, Reporting Completeness, and Reproducibility in Mass-Casualty Incident Triage Research: Methodology Scoping Review

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 September 2026

Özgün Aran*
Affiliation:
Department of Disaster Medicine, Institute of Defence Health Sciences, University of Health Sciences, Ankara, Türkiye
Ruşen Koray Eyison
Affiliation:
Department of Health Service Management in Disaster and Extraordinary Situations, Institute of Defence Health Sciences, University of Health Sciences, Ankara, Türkiye
Denizhan Kılınç
Affiliation:
Department of Thoracic Surgery, University of Health Sciences, Ankara, Türkiye
Onur Genç
Affiliation:
Department of Disaster Medicine, Institute of Defence Health Sciences, University of Health Sciences, Ankara, Türkiye
Hakan Işık
Affiliation:
Department of Thoracic Surgery, University of Health Sciences, Ankara, Türkiye
*
Corresponding author: Özgün Aran, MD Department of Disaster Medicine Institute of Defense Health Sciences University of Health Sciences General Tevfik Sağlam Cd. No:110, Etlik, 06010 Keçiören/Ankara, Türkiye E-mail: ozgun.aran@sbu.edu.tr
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Abstract

Introduction/Study Objective:

Mass-casualty incident (MCI) triage algorithms are evaluated against reference standards that operationally define the “critical casualty,” yet the constructs underlying these standards and the completeness of their reporting have not been systematically characterized.

Methods:

A PRISMA-ScR methodology scoping review was conducted using a pre-registered Open Science Framework (OSF) protocol; MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, and CINAHL were searched on May 5, 2026 for English-language full-text sources that described, derived, validated, or applied a reference standard for distinguishing critical from non-critical casualties in MCI triage. Reference standards were classified using a pre-specified taxonomy, and reporting completeness was assessed with the eight-item Reference Standard Reporting Index for MCI Triage (RSRI-MCI), developed a priori for this review and not externally validated. Two reviewers independently classified and coded all sources.

Results:

Sixty sources published from 2001 through 2025 were included. Operationalized reference standards clustered around four foundational methodological sources, while only five sources (8%) analyzed retrospective data from actual MCIs. Five reference-standard families were identified: Life-Saving Intervention (LSI)-Based (38%), Composite/Hybrid (30%), Expert Panel (15%), Outcome/Resource (12%), and Anatomic Severity (5%); LSI-Based and Composite constructs together accounted for approximately two-thirds of the field. Reporting was asymmetric: definition (98%), components (97%), and rationale (88%) were reported almost universally, whereas time window (40%), dead/expectant handling (57%), binary mapping (65%), missing-data handling (58%), and reference-standard limitations (58%) were reported less consistently. Inter-rater agreement was substantial overall (83%) and for family classification (93%; Gwet’s Chance-Corrected Agreement Coefficient [AC1] = 0.919; 95% CI, 0.837–0.980).

Conclusion:

Mass-casualty incident triage studies routinely report what their reference standard is but inconsistently report how it is operationalized, particularly its time window. Five reporting recommendations are proposed for future MCI triage validation research.

Information

Type
Structured Review
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine
Figure 0

Figure 1. PRISMA-ScR Flow of Records through Scoping Review.Note: Four bibliographic databases (MEDLINE via PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and CINAHL via EBSCOhost) were searched on May 5, 2026. Record-by-record exclusion reasons at the full-text stage are provided in Supplementary Table S2.

Figure 1

Table 1. Summary Characteristics of the 60 Included SourcesTable 1 long description.

Figure 2

Figure 2. Distribution of Reference-Standard Families across 60 Included Sources.Note: The LSI-based family accounted for 38% of included sources. Together with composite/hybrid frameworks, many of which incorporated intervention-based components, LSI-based and multi-component reference standards accounted for approximately two-thirds of the field.

Figure 3

Table 2. Reference Standard Family Taxonomy with Operational Definitions and Representative SourcesTable 2 long description.

Figure 4

Table 3. Inter-Rater Agreement between Primary and Secondary Reviewer for Family Classification and the Eight RSRI-MCI Items Across 60 Included SourcesTable 3 long description.

Figure 5

Box 1. Five Reporting Elements for Reference-Standard Descriptions in MCI Triage Validation Studies

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