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Renewal processes, population dynamics, and unimodular trees

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 July 2019

François Baccelli*
Affiliation:
The University of Texas at Austin
Antonio Sodre*
Affiliation:
The University of Texas at Austin
*
*Postal address: Department of Mathematics, The University of Texas at Austin, 2515 Speedway, RLM 8.100, Austin, TX 78712-1202, USA.
*Postal address: Department of Mathematics, The University of Texas at Austin, 2515 Speedway, RLM 8.100, Austin, TX 78712-1202, USA.
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Abstract

Based on a simple object, an i.i.d. sequence of positive integer-valued random variables {an}n∊ℤ, we introduce and study two random structures and their connections. First, a population dynamics, in which each individual is born at time n and dies at time n + an. This dynamics is that of a D/GI/∞ queue, with arrivals at integer times and service times given by {an}n∊ℤ. Second, the directed random graph Tf on ℤ generated by the random map f(n) = n + an. Assuming only that E [a0] < ∞ and P [a0 = 1] > 0, we show that, in steady state, the population dynamics is regenerative, with one individual alive at each regeneration epoch. We identify a unimodular structure in this dynamics. More precisely, Tf is a unimodular directed tree, in which f(n) is the parent of n. This tree has a unique bi-infinite path. Moreover, Tf splits the integers into two categories: ephemeral integers, with a finite number of descendants of all degrees, and successful integers, with an infinite number. Each regeneration epoch is a successful individual such that all integers less than it are its descendants of some order. Ephemeral, successful, and regeneration integers form stationary and mixing point processes on ℤ.

Information

Type
Research Papers
Copyright
© Applied Probability Trust 2019 
Figure 0

Figure 1: The population process. Here, a−6 = 8, a−5 = 3, a−4 = 8, a−3 = 3, a−2 = 3, and a−1 = 5. Assuming a−i < ifor all i > 6, there are four edges crossing 0. Individuals −6, −4, −2, and −1 are still alive at time 0. Hence, N0 = 5, as it includes the individual born at 0.

Figure 1

Figure 2: From the population process to the family tree. The top figure depicts the f dynamics running on ℤ. The curved black lines represent individual lifespans. For example, individual 7 lives three units of time. The bottom figure depicts the tree representation of the dynamics on ℤ, with the directed edges representing parenthood. There, 7 is the child of 10, and has four children: 1, 4, 5, and 6. Individual 8, for example, has no children.

Figure 2

Figure 3: The direct ephemeral descendants and the cousins of 0. Above we have a realization of Tf and below the corresponding representation on ℤ. Here, −3, 0, 3, and 6 belong to the bi-infinite path (denoted by discs with dashed boundaries). The grey discs represent the individuals that are the direct ephemeral descendants of 0, while the black ones are cousins. Individual 0 has two ephemeral children (nodes −1 and −2), one successful (node −3), and one ephemeral grandchild (node −5). It has a first-degree cousin (node 2) and two second-degree cousins (nodes −6 and 4). While any descendant of 0 must be to the left of it on ℤ, cousins can be either to the left or the right.

Figure 3

Figure 4: Cousins and the direct ephemeral descendants trees. The integers {ksi}4i=1 represent the successful individuals. The notation I(n,m) reads ‘individual I of the nth layer of the the direct ephemeral descendant tree (d.e.d.t.) of ksm’. For example, 2(2,4) is the second individual in the second layer of the d.e.d.t. of ks4. Each box contains the cousins of ks0 of different degrees. The lower box contains the first-degree cousins, the middle box contains the second-degree cousins, and the top box contains the fourth-degree cousins (there are no third-degree cousins). Equivalently, the lower box contains all elements of the first layer of the d.e.d.t. of ks1, the middle box contains all elements of the second layer of the d.e.d.t. of ks2, and the top box contains all elements of the fourth layer of the d.e.d.t. of ks4.As the d.e.d.t. of ks3 has no third layer, ks0 has no third-degree cousins.