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Forecasting long-lived Lagrangian vortices from their objective Eulerian footprints

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 January 2017

Mattia Serra
Affiliation:
Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering, ETH Zürich, Leonhardstrasse 21, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
George Haller*
Affiliation:
Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering, ETH Zürich, Leonhardstrasse 21, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
*
†Email address for correspondence: georgehaller@ethz.ch

Abstract

We derive a non-dimensional metric to quantify the expected Lagrangian persistence of objectively defined Eulerian vortices in two-dimensional unsteady flows. This persistence metric is the averaged deviation of the vorticity from its spatial mean over the Eulerian vortex, normalized by the instantaneous material leakage from the Eulerian vortex. The metric offers a model- and frame-independent tool for uncovering the instantaneous Eulerian signature of long-lived Lagrangian vortices. Using satellite-derived ocean velocity data, we show that Lagrangian vortex-persistence predictions by our metric significantly outperform those inferred from other customary Eulerian diagnostics, such as the potential vorticity gradient and the Okubo–Weiss criterion.

Information

Type
Papers
Copyright
© 2017 Cambridge University Press 
Figure 0

Figure 1.(a) A closed material curve $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE}$ (black) at time $t$ is advected by the flow into its later position $F_{t}^{t+\unicode[STIX]{x1D70F}}(\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE})$, with $\unicode[STIX]{x1D70F}\approx 0$. The advected curve remains coherent if an initially uniform material belt (magenta) around it shows no leading-order variations in stretching rate. (b) Nested family of elliptic OECSs in a flow example, analysed in more detail in § 6, for different values of $\unicode[STIX]{x1D707}$ (in colour). The elliptic OECS family fills a region that also turns out to contain a persistent Lagrangian vortex in this example (Haller & Beron-Vera 2013).

Figure 1

Figure 2.(a) Initial elliptic OECS $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE}$ (black) and its advected image under the flow in the extended phase space over $[t,t_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}}]$, where $t_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}}=t+\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}\unicode[STIX]{x0394}t$. At time $t$, the flow velocity perpendicular to the curve and the corresponding elliptic OECS velocity are reported by the green and red arrows, respectively. At time $t_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}}$, the advected image, $F_{t}^{t_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}}}(\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE})$, is shown in green while the recomputed elliptic OECS $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE}(t_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}})$ in red. (b) Slice of (a) at time $t$. (c) Slice of (a) at time $t_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}}$. The blue and black areas represent the actual inward and outward material flux across $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE}$ over $[t,t_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}}]$, respectively.

Figure 2

Figure 3.Elliptic OECSs with the highest persistence metric $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6E9}_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE}}$ on a surface representing the negative OW$\;(\text{day}^{-1})$ parameter (horizontal colour bar or $z$-axis). The colour of elliptic OECSs represents the corresponding stretching rate value $\unicode[STIX]{x1D707}\;(\text{day}^{-1})$ (right colour bar). Black numbers identify different vortical regions detected by elliptic OECSs. In magenta, the classification of the most persistent vortical regions in decreasing order of $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6E9}_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE}}$.

Figure 3

Figure 4.(a) Values of the persistence metric $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6E9}_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE}}$ (blue) for the different vortical regions identified by elliptic OECSs compared with their Lagrangian lifetime (red). (b–d) Spatial average of $-$OW$\;(\text{day}^{-1})$, $|\unicode[STIX]{x1D735}$ PV$|\;((\text{deg}\cdot \text{day})^{-1})$ and $|$PV$|\;(\text{day}^{-1})$ within elliptic OECSs compared with their Lagrangian lifetime (red). The parameter $\unicode[STIX]{x1D70C}$ indicates the correlation coefficient between the instantaneous prediction given by each metric and the actual Lagrangian lifetime of the underlying vortical region.

Figure 4

Figure 5.Persistence metric of eddies $E\#16$ and $E\#8$ recomputed at four consecutive times one week apart from each other. The initial time $t=1$ refers the current time $24~\text{November}~2006$.

Figure 5

Figure 6.OW$\;(\text{day}^{-1})$ parameter and two specified level sets corresponding to OW$=-\unicode[STIX]{x1D70E}$ (black) and OW$=-0.2\unicode[STIX]{x1D70E}$ (red) with $\unicode[STIX]{x1D70E}$ being the OW spatial standard deviation.

Figure 6

Figure 7.Black contours represent vortex boundaries identified by the Okubo–Weiss level set OW$=-\unicode[STIX]{x1D70E}$, with $\unicode[STIX]{x1D70E}$ being the OW spatial standard deviation. Black numbers denote different vortical regions, while magenta numbers classify their strength in decreasing order of $-\overline{\text{OW}}$.

Figure 7

Figure 8.Elliptic OECSs with highest vortex-persistence metric $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6E9}_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE}}$, plotted over $|\unicode[STIX]{x1D735}$ PV$|\;((\text{deg}\cdot \text{day})^{-1})$ (horizontal colour bar). Elliptic OECSs are encoded with a colour representing their stretching-rate value $\unicode[STIX]{x1D707}\;(\text{day}^{-1})$ (right colour bar). Black numbers label different vortical regions encircled by elliptic OECSs.