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REML IS AN EFFECTIVE ANALYSIS FOR MIXED MODELLING OF UNBALANCED ON-FARM VARIETAL TRIALS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2009

D. S. VIRK*
Affiliation:
CAZS-Natural Resources, College of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Wales, UK
D. B. PANDIT
Affiliation:
Wheat Research Centre, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Nashipur, Dinajpur, Bangladesh
M. A. SUFIAN
Affiliation:
Wheat Research Centre, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Nashipur, Dinajpur, Bangladesh
F. AHMED
Affiliation:
Regional Agricultural Research Station, BARI, Jamalpur, Bangladesh
M. A. B. SIDDIQUE
Affiliation:
Regional Agricultural Research Station, BARI, Jessore
M. A. SAMAD
Affiliation:
Wheat Testing Station, BARI, Joydebpur, Gazipur
M. M. RAHMAN
Affiliation:
Regional Wheat Research Centre, BARI, Shyampur, Rajshahi
M. M. ISLAM
Affiliation:
Wheat Research Centre, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Nashipur, Dinajpur, Bangladesh
G. ORTIZ-FERRARA
Affiliation:
International Center for Maize and Wheat Improvement (CIMMYT) South Asia Regional Program, Kathmandu, Nepal
K. D. JOSHI
Affiliation:
CAZS-Natural Resources, CIMMYT South Asia Regional Program Office, Kathmandu, Nepal
J. R. WITCOMBE
Affiliation:
CAZS-Natural Resources, College of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Wales, UK
*
*Corresponding author: d.s.virk@bangor.ac.uk
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Summary

On-farm participatory varietal selection (PVS) trials are often of two types: mother trials (with all of the entries) and baby trials (each having one, or very few of the entries from the mother trials). We conducted PVS trials on 17 wheat varieties in 12 villages of four districts of Bangladesh over three years but the data were highly unbalanced. Both quantitative and qualitative traits were measured in the on-farm trials. The factors in the trials were both fixed effects (varieties and districts) and random (years and farmers). We used the residual or restricted maximum likelihood (REML) analysis for the mixed model for quantitative traits. For qualitative data on farmers' perceptions, logistic regression procedures were used that are equally applicable to balanced and unbalanced data sets. The REML analysis provided adjusted mean values for quantitative traits for all the varieties, for the mother and baby trials separately, using the data from all years and all locations. It identified varieties BAW 1006 and BAW 1008 that yielded 19–30% more than the control Kanchan and also had a higher 1000-grain weight, were at least as early to flower and had a high overall ranking by farmers in the mother trials. The logistic regression analysis of perception data agreed with the results of the REML analysis as these varieties were most preferred by farmers for grain yield, earlier maturity and better chapatti making quality. The less labour-intensive method of recording qualitative perceptions can usefully replace actual yield measurements, particularly when validated by other participatory measures such as intended and actual adoption. In 2005, BAW 1006 was released as BARI Gom 23 or Bijoy and BAW 1008 as BARI Gom 24 or Prodip for the whole of Bangladesh. The validity of the results of the REML analysis was confirmed by the high early adoption trends of the identified varieties. Since REML is an effective analysis for unbalanced PVS trial data using a mixed model, its wider use by researchers would increase the value of the PVS process.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2008
Figure 0

Figure 1. A sketch map of Bangladesh indicating the locations of the project districts and villages.

Figure 1

Table 1. The wheat varieties tested in the mother and baby trials in each year in four districts in Bangladesh from 2002/03 to 2004/05.

Figure 2

Table 2. Total number of mother and baby trials conducted for each wheat variety in four districts across three years (2002/03 to 2004/05).

Figure 3

Table 3. Significance of the main effects and their interactions tested by chi-squared (Wald statistic/d.f.) values in the overall REML analysis for (a) the mother trials for four traits of the wheat varieties and (b) for the baby trials for the grain yield of the wheat varieties, 2002/03 to 2004/05.

Figure 4

Table 4. District-wise mean grain yield (t ha−1) of wheat varieties tested in mother (MT) and baby (BT) trials for three years (2002/03 to 2004/05). Blank cells indicate variety was not tested.

Figure 5

Table 5. Mean values by district for time to heading (TH in days), thousand-grain weight (TGW in g) and overall score (OS on 1 to 8 scale) of wheat varieties tested in mother trials in four districts over three years (2003–2005).

Figure 6

Table 6. Logistic regression coefficients and odds ratios (OR) for qualitative perceptions recorded in baby trials. Varieties with non-significant parameters are omitted. Blank cells show that estimates were non-significant. All regression coefficients (b) are relative to Kanchan control variety and only significantly positive (increases) estimates for grain yield and chapatti quality, and negative (decreases) for maturity are given.

Figure 7

Table 7. Parameters of binary logistic regression (only given for the significant regressions (b)) and odds ratios for varieties for the ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ counts of farmers' replies in baby trials in 2003, 2004, 2005 if they would grow a variety next year.

Figure 8

Table 8. Trends in adoption of new wheat varieties (% of total wheat area) in the PVS villages in 2004/05 compared to 2002/03 in four districts, Bangladesh.

Figure 9

Figure 2. Regression of two varieties on to Kanchan in mother and baby trials conducted in four districts of Bangladesh, 2003 to 2005. The regression equations for the mother trials were: BAW 1006 = 1.4 ± 0.3 + 0.7 x ± 0.1x; BAW 1008 = 1.7 ± 0.3 + 0.7x ± 0.1. The regression equations for the baby trials were: BAW 1006 = 2.0 ± 0.2 + 0.5x± 0.1; BAW 1008 = 2.2 ± 0.2 + 0.5x ± 0.1.