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Rates of warming and the global sensitivity of shallow water marine invertebrates to elevated temperature

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 March 2014

S.A. Morley*
Affiliation:
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, CB3 0ET, UK
A.E. Bates
Affiliation:
National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK
M Lamare
Affiliation:
Department of Marine Science, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
J Richard
Affiliation:
Université de Bretagne Occidentale, Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer, Laboratoire de Sciences de l'Environnement Marin (UMR CNRS 6539), Technopôle Brest-Iroise, Place Copernic, F-29280 Plouzané, France
K.D. Nguyen
Affiliation:
Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, 14 Kent Ridge Road, Singapore 119223, Singapore
J Brown
Affiliation:
Environmental Management Division, Environment and Natural Resources Directorate, St Helena Government, Essex House, Jamestown, St Helena STHL 1ZZ
L.S. Peck
Affiliation:
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, CB3 0ET, UK
*
Correspondence should be addressed to: S. A. Morley, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, CB3 0ET, UK email: smor@bas.ac.uk
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Abstract

Assessing the sensitivity of ectotherms to variability in their environment is a key challenge, especially in the face of rapid warming of the Earth's surface. Comparing the upper temperature limits of species from different regions, at different rates of warming, has recently been developed as a method to estimate the long term sensitivity of shallow marine fauna. This paper presents the first preliminary data from four tropical Ascension Island, five temperate New Zealand and six Antarctic McMurdo Sound species. The slopes and intercepts of these three assemblages fitted within the overall pattern for previously measured assemblages from high temperature tolerance in tropical fauna and a shallow slope, to low temperature tolerance and a steep slope in Antarctic fauna. Despite the tropical oceanic Ascension Island being subject to upwelling events, the fit of the intercept and slope within the overall assemblage pattern suggests that the upwelling is sufficiently predictable for the fauna to have evolved the plasticity to respond. This contrasts with previously analysed species from the Peruvian upwelling region, which had a steeper slope than other temperate fauna. The speed and capacity of faunal assemblages to acclimatize their physiology is likely to determine the shape of the rates of warming relationship, and will be a key mechanism underpinning vulnerability to climate warming.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom 2014 
Figure 0

Table 1. Rates of warming, species used and higher taxon in experiments on species collected from three locations; Ascension Island, Dunedin in New Zealand and McMurdo Sound, Antarctica.

Figure 1

Table 2. Mann–Whitney comparison tests of thermal limits of 4 species of invertebrate at the fastest rates of temperature change.

Figure 2

Fig. 1. Temperature limits of different faunal assemblages from the tropics to the Antarcic. Tropical Singapore data from Nguyen et al. (2012), Antarctic Peninsula data from Peck et al. (2009), and new data from Ascension Island, New Zealand and McMurdo Sound. Fitted lines from linear mixed effect regression fits (Table 3).

Figure 3

Fig. 2. For groups of marine invertebrates from different locations, the slope of the regression between upper temperature limit and rate of warming (as in Figure 1) is plotted against the intercept. Singapore data from Nguyen et al. (2012), temperate data from Richard et al. (2012) with the Peruvian upwelling fauna indicated with an open diamond, Antarctic Peninsula data from Peck et al. (2009). The regression line was fitted excluding this outlying Peruvian fauna. Slope = 0.071intercept–0.27, R2 = 0.97, F = 252, P < 0.01.

Figure 4

Table 3. Summary table for the linear mixed effects model estimates fitted using restricted maximum likelihood for the global relationship of upper temperature limit as a function of the predictor, the rate of temperature change, with location as a factor and species as a random factor. WAP, Western Antarctic Peninsula. Akaike information criterion = 145.8; log likelihood = 88.9; SE, standard error; d.f., degrees of freedom.

Figure 5

Fig. 3. Theoretical representation of the effect of the rate of warming on the lethal limits of marine ecotherms across latitudes. The dashed line represents a tropical assemblage with a shallow slope, due to rapid but limited acclimation capacity. The solid lines represent a temperate assemblage with an intermediate slope, a slower rate of acclimation, but with greater acclimation capacity. Two examples are shown with different rates of acclimation. The dotted line represents a polar assemblage with a steep slope and very slow and limited acclimation capacity.

Supplementary material: Image

Morley Supplementary Material

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