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Exact simulation of the genealogical tree for a stationary branching population and application to the asymptotics of its total length

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2021

Romain Abraham*
Affiliation:
IDP, Université d’Orléans, Université de Tours, CNRS
Jean-François Delmas*
Affiliation:
CERMICS, Université Paris-Est, ENPC
*
*Postal address: Institut Denis Poisson, Université d’Orléans, B.P. 6759, 45067 Orléans Cedex 2, France. E-mail: romain.abraham@univ-orleans.fr
**Postal address: école des Ponts ParisTech, CERMICS, 6 et 8, avenue Blaise Pascal, Cité Descartes—Champs-sur-Marne, 77455 Marne-la-Vallée Cedex 2, France.
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Abstract

We consider a model of a stationary population with random size given by a continuous-state branching process with immigration with a quadratic branching mechanism. We give an exact elementary simulation procedure for the genealogical tree of n individuals randomly chosen among the extant population at a given time. Then we prove the convergence of the renormalized total length of this genealogical tree as n goes to infinity; see also Pfaffelhuber, Wakolbinger and Weisshaupt (2011) in the context of a constant-size population. The limit appears already in Bi and Delmas (2016) but with a different approximation of the full genealogical tree. The proof is based on the ancestral process of the extant population at a fixed time, which was defined by Aldous and Popovic (2005) in the critical case.

Information

Type
Original Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Applied Probability Trust
Figure 0

Figure 1: An example of an ancestral process and the corresponding genealogical tree.

Figure 1

Figure 2: An example of a tree with a semi-infinite branch.

Figure 2

Figure 3: An example of the distance d(u, v) defined in (3.2).

Figure 3

Figure 4: The Brownian motions with drift, the ancestral process, and the associated genealogical tree.

Figure 4

Figure 5: The genealogical tree inside the Brownian motions.

Figure 5

Figure 6: One realization of $E_{\textrm{g}}, E_{\textrm{d}}, X_1, \ldots, X_5$.

Figure 6

Figure 7: One realization of the tree $\mathfrak{T}_5^{\text{S}}$.

Figure 7

Figure 8: An example of the tree $\mathfrak{T}_4^{\text{D}}$.

Figure 8

Figure 9: An example of the tree $\mathfrak{T}_5^{\text{D}}$. The length of the new branch attached to $V_{5}$ is conditioned to be less than that of the previous branch that was in the considered interval attached to $V_{2}$.

Figure 9

Figure 10: An example of the tree $\mathfrak{T}^{\text{H}}_4$ with the new individual $X_5$.

Figure 10

Figure 11: An example of the tree $\mathfrak{T}^{\text{H}}_5$ with $\mathfrak{T}^{\text{H}}_4$ given in Figure 10 and the event associated with $p_{\textrm{d}}$ (a new segment is attached to $X_{5}$).

Figure 11

Figure 12: An example of the tree $\mathfrak{T}^{\text{H}}_5$ with $\mathfrak{T}^{\text{H}}_4$ given in Figure 10 and the event associated with $p_{\textrm{g}}$ (the segment previously attached to $X_2$ is now attached to $X_5$, and a new segment is attached to $X_2$).