It is atypical for young economists to boldly and confidently take on the economics establishment, including renowned economists, best-seller authors and prestigious international organisations such as the World Bank, the IMF and the African Development Bank. They usually wait until they're well-established, and perhaps receive tenure and promotion to Full Professorship. Not so for Morten Jerven! In this scathing and provocative book, Jerven admonishes mainstream economists working on African development for not only being ahistorical, but also prone to using flawed methodologies and unreliable data in their empirical analysis. He cautions that policy prescriptions emanating from these studies can be lethal for African development. He calls for a new approach to the study of growth in Africa that avoids the ‘compression of history’, and describes the so-called ‘failure of growth in Africa’ as a myth concocted by mainstream economists.

Rather than break new ground, this lucid book is distinctive in its persuasive use of polemics, rhetoric and sarcasm to poignantly elucidate what has long been known as the limitations of empirical research in economics. For instance, Jerven expended considerable time and energy to drive home the point that GDP is measured incorrectly by statistical offices in Africa. He also lamented the pervasive paucity of reliable data on African economies. This is not a novel narrative, as first-year economics students are often taught that GDP is an imperfect measure of economic activity and wellbeing for the reasons alluded to by Jerven. The general consensus is that GDP overestimates or underestimates the level of economic activity, especially in economies with large informal and subsistence sectors. It is also acknowledged by mainstream economists that empirical research in economics is fraught with causality, endogeneity, missing data and a plethora of problems. This is why growth economists conduct various statistical tests to identify potential shortcomings of their results. Credible mainstream economists usually add caveats to their analysis, and urge policymakers to interpret empirical results within the context of certain limitations.

I'm not a mainstream economist and I believe I have almost the same philosophical mind-set as Jerven, but I think that the book needed to have cut mainstream economists some slack. For instance, Jerven claims that mainstream economists often focus on periods of declining growth, while they deliberately ignore periods of stellar performance. That is not entirely true. The literature is replete with references to the episodic nature of growth in Africa, and points to the need to smoothen the boom-bust cycles that characterise the growth process. Economists focus on periods of slow or negative growth because the drivers of economic boom in Africa are well-known, namely unexpected increases in commodity prices – a fact that Jerven himself recognises. Thus, there is really nothing much to explain or problematise about periods of strong economic growth in Africa, except for the isolated cases of Mauritius and Rwanda. Even then, there have been several studies of ‘success stories’ in Africa and what other countries might learn. To sort of portray all mainstream economists as ‘Oscar the Grouch’ seem to be unfair.

As with other books, this book has its own fair share of mis-statements. On p. 93, Jerven states that the conception of the African state as inept is based on observations in the 1980s and 1990s. That is not true; post-independence states in Africa were viewed much the same way as the subsequent ones. They were not only inept, but also patrimonial, predatory and oppressive – which explains the high incidence of coups and counter-coups in the 1960s and 1970s. There are also contradictory statements in the book, as when the author claims, on p. 118, that ‘it is likely that very recent growth data are overestimating economic growth’. A similar statement can be found on p. 120, where Jerven cautions that ‘the statements about ‘Africa Rising’ need to be viewed with some caution’. One would think that a key insight from the book is that mainstream economists have underplayed growth episodes in Africa. Now, the problem is that they are overstating it! Jerven seems to be on both sides of the argument about growth in Africa. This inconsistency, unfortunately, runs the risk of portraying the book as window-shopping for loopholes in the literature, rather than a substantive critique of a supposedly flawed methodology.

Jerven repeatedly discusses the ‘first and second waves’ of studies on growth in Africa, but failed to mention a ‘third wave’: studies that focus on sustainable growth, sustainable development, inclusive growth, economics of happiness, etc. In fact, the literature appears to be evolving into a post-economic growth genre, and the traditional growth literature is in the process of becoming a relic.

It has become customary to end a book review by listing those who must read the book, but I wish to present a more nuanced list. If you're a heterodox economist or thinker seeking another context for affirming your belief in the bankruptcy of mainstream economics, then this book is for you. You will also derive additional value-added from Jerven's tantalising titbits about the peculiar nature of pre-colonial, colonial and post-colonial African economies. Mainstream economists who wish to sharpen their empirical analysis and avoid the acerbic wrath of the likes of Jerven will do well to read this book.