Hostname: page-component-74656f9884-2dmjx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-11-10T09:41:00.076Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Pastoral production is associated with increased peste des petits ruminants seroprevalence in northern Tanzania across sheep, goats and cattle

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 July 2019

C. M. Herzog*
Affiliation:
Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA
W. A. de Glanville
Affiliation:
Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
B. J. Willett
Affiliation:
MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK
T. J. Kibona
Affiliation:
Nelson Mandela African Institute of Science and Technology, Arusha, Tanzania
I. M. Cattadori
Affiliation:
Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA
V. Kapur
Affiliation:
Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA
P. J. Hudson
Affiliation:
Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA
J. Buza
Affiliation:
Nelson Mandela African Institute of Science and Technology, Arusha, Tanzania
S. Cleaveland
Affiliation:
Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
O. N. Bjørnstad
Affiliation:
Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA
*
Author for correspondence: Catherine M. Herzog, E-mail: cqh5447@psu.edu
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant populations globally. Using cross-sectional serosurvey data collected in 2016, our study investigated PPRV seroprevalence and risk factors among sheep, goats and cattle in 20 agropastoral (AP) and pastoral (P) villages in northern Tanzania. Overall observed seroprevalence was 21.1% (95% exact confidence interval (CI) 20.1–22.0) with 5.8% seroprevalence among agropastoral (95% CI 5.0–6.7) and 30.7% among pastoral villages (95% CI 29.3–32.0). Seropositivity varied significantly by management (production) system. Our study applied the catalytic framework to estimate the force of infection. The associated reproductive numbers (R0) were estimated at 1.36 (95% CI 1.32–1.39), 1.40 (95% CI 1.37–1.44) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.11–1.14) for sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. For sheep and goats, these R0 values are likely underestimates due to infection-associated mortality. Spatial heterogeneity in risk among pairs of species across 20 villages was significantly positively correlated (R2: 0.59–0.69), suggesting either cross-species transmission or common, external risk factors affecting all species. The non-negligible seroconversion in cattle may represent spillover or cattle-to-cattle transmission and must be investigated further to understand the role of cattle in PPRV transmission ahead of upcoming eradication efforts.

Information

Type
Original Paper
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2019
Figure 0

Fig. 1. Study villages in northern Tanzania and village management system type. Inset of Tanzania highlights the three regions in main figure.

Figure 1

Fig. 2. Age distribution of sheep, goats and cattle. Age was measured in the animals by dentition (age group 1 = temporary teeth, 2 = one pair, 3 = two pair, 4 = three pair, 5 = 4 pair, 6 = full and worn (over 5 years old). Dashed lines are included for comparison and all set at 100 and 500.

Figure 2

Table 1. Sample population characteristics

Figure 3

Fig. 3. Variation in village PPRV seroprevalence by species and management type. Agro = Agropastoral, Past = Pastoral.

Figure 4

Table 2. Generalised linear mixed model results for all-species and individual-species models

Figure 5

Fig. 4. Spatial variation in village-level standardised force of infection (FOI) estimates. Blue colouring indicates a village FOI that was lower than the mean FOI (standardised to zero) and red colouring indicates a village FOI that was higher than the standardised mean FOI. There was strong evidence of spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) in FOI for goats and cattle (P < 0.001) but weak evidence in sheep (P = 0.08).

Figure 6

Fig. 5. Village-level standardised force of infection (FOI) estimates by species pairs. Mean FOI is standardised to zero and is in middle of both axes. Where the village FOI was higher or lower than the mean FOI for one species, it was also higher or lower than the mean for the second species plotted. All correlations are significant (P < 0.001).

Supplementary material: File

Herzog et al. supplementary material

Herzog et al. supplementary material 1

Download Herzog et al. supplementary material(File)
File 653.4 KB