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Predicting the last zero before an exponential time of a spectrally negative Lévy process

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 January 2023

Erik J. Baurdoux*
Affiliation:
London School of Economics and Political Science
José M. Pedraza*
Affiliation:
University of Waterloo
*
*Postal address: Department of Statistics, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom. Email address: e.j.baurdoux@lse.ac.uk
**Postal address: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada. Email address: josemanuel.pedraza-ramirez@uwaterloo.ca
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Abstract

Given a spectrally negative Lévy process, we predict, in an $L_1$ sense, the last passage time of the process below zero before an independent exponential time. This optimal prediction problem generalises [2], where the infinite-horizon problem is solved. Using a similar argument as that in [24], we show that this optimal prediction problem is equivalent to solving an optimal prediction problem in a finite-horizon setting. Surprisingly (unlike the infinite-horizon problem), an optimal stopping time is based on a curve that is killed at the moment the mean of the exponential time is reached. That is, an optimal stopping time is the first time the process crosses above a non-negative, continuous, and non-increasing curve depending on time. This curve and the value function are characterised as a solution of a system of nonlinear integral equations which can be understood as a generalisation of the free boundary equations (see e.g. [21, Chapter IV.14.1]) in the presence of jumps. As an example, we numerically calculate this curve in the Brownian motion case and for a compound Poisson process with exponential-sized jumps perturbed by a Brownian motion.

Information

Type
Original Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Applied Probability Trust
Figure 0

Figure 1. Cramér–Lundberg process with $\tau_0^-$, the moment of ruin, and $g_{\theta}$, the last zero before an exponential time.

Figure 1

Figure 2. Brownian motion with drift $\mu=2$ and $\sigma=1$. Left panel: optimal boundary. Right panel: value function fixing $t=1$.

Figure 2

Figure 3. Brownian motion with drift perturbed by a compound Poisson process with exponential-sized jumps with $\mu=3$ and $\sigma=\lambda=\rho=1$. Left panel: optimal boundary. Right panel: value function fixing $t=0$.