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IDENTIFICATION-ROBUST TWO-STAGE BOOTSTRAP TESTS WITH PRETESTING FOR EXOGENEITY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 January 2026

Firmin Doko Tchatoka
Affiliation:
Adelaide University
Wenjie Wang*
Affiliation:
Nanyang Technological University
*
Address correspondence to Wenjie Wang, Division of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, e-mail: wang.wj@ntu.edu.sg.
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Abstract

Pretesting for exogeneity has become routine in many empirical applications involving instrumental variables (IVs) to decide whether the ordinary least squares or IV-based method is appropriate. Guggenberger (2010a, Econometric Theory, 26, 369–382) shows that the second-stage test – based on the outcome of a Durbin-Wu-Hausman-type pretest in the first stage – exhibits extreme size distortion, with asymptotic size equal to 1 when the standard critical values are used. In this paper, we first show that both conditional and unconditional on the data, standard wild bootstrap procedures are invalid for two-stage testing. Second, we propose an identification-robust two-stage test statistic that switches between OLS-based and weak-IV-robust statistics. Third, we develop a size-adjusted wild bootstrap approach for our two-stage test that integrates specific wild bootstrap critical values with an appropriate size-adjustment method. We establish uniform validity of this procedure under conditional heteroskedasticity or clustering in the sense that the resulting tests achieve correct asymptotic size, regardless of whether the identification is strong or weak. Our procedure is especially valuable for empirical researchers facing potential weak identification. In such settings, its power advantage is notable: whereas weak-IV-robust methods maintain correct size but often suffer from relatively low power, our approach achieves better performance.

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ARTICLES
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1 95% quantiles of $\tilde {T}^S_{l,h}$ and $\tilde {T}^{S*}_{l,h}$ under strong identification and homoskedasticity.Note: “Hausman” and “Hansen” denote the Hausman-type two-stage statistic $T^S_{\beta ,n}(\theta _0)$ with $\beta =0.05$ and Hansen’s (2017) shrinkage statistic $T^S_{\tau ,n}(\theta _0)$ with $\tau =0.5$, respectively. “BS-Hausman” and “BS-Hansen” denote their wild bootstrap analogs $T^{S*}_{\beta ,n}(\theta _0)$ and $T^{S*}_{\tau ,n}(\theta _0)$ with the dependent transformation. The results are based on 1,000,000 simulation replications.

Figure 1

Figure 2 95% quantiles of $\tilde {T}^W_{l,h}$ and $\tilde {T}^{W*}_{l,h}$ under strong identification and homoskedasticity.Note: “Hausman” and “Hansen” denote the weak-identification-robust Hausman-type two-stage statistic $T^W_{\beta ,n}(\theta _0)$ with $\beta =0.05$ and Hansen’s (2017) shrinkage statistic $T^W_{\tau ,n}(\theta _0)$ with $\tau =0.5$, respectively. “BS-Hausman” and “BS-Hansen” denote their wild bootstrap analogs $T^{W*}_{\beta ,n}(\theta _0)$ and $T^{W*}_{\tau ,n}(\theta _0)$ with the dependent transformation. The results are based on 1,000,000 simulation replications.

Figure 2

Table 1 Asymptotic null rejection probabilities (in %) for $\alpha =0.05$ under homoskedasticity

Figure 3

Figure 3 Power of tests under heteroskedasticity with $\phi =1$, $n=200$, $\beta =0.05$, and $\delta =0.025$.Note: The power curves for the AR test, the two-stage test with BACVs, and the shrinkage test with BACVs with $\tau =$ 0.5 and 0.25 are illustrated by the curves in pink, green, red, and blue, respectively.

Figure 4

Figure 4 Power of tests under heteroskedasticity with $\phi =10$, $n=200$, $\beta =0.05$, and $\delta =0.025$.Note: The power curves for the AR test, the two-stage test with BACVs, and the shrinkage test with BACVs with $\tau =$ 0.5 and 0.25 are illustrated by the curves in pink, green, red, and blue, respectively.

Figure 5

Figure 5 Power of tests under heteroskedasticity with $\phi =1$, $n=200$, $\beta =0.05$, and $\delta =0.01$.Note: The power curves for the AR test, the two-stage test with BACVs, and the shrinkage test with BACVs with $\tau =$ 0.5 and 0.25 are illustrated by the curves in pink, green, red, and blue, respectively.

Figure 6

Figure 6 Power of tests under heteroskedasticity with $\phi =10$, $n=200$, $\beta =0.05$, and $\delta =0.01$.Note: The power curves for the AR test, the two-stage test with BACVs, and the shrinkage test with BACVs with $\tau =$ 0.5 and 0.25 are illustrated by the curves in pink, green, red, and blue, respectively.

Figure 7

Figure 7 Power of tests under clustering with $\phi =1$, $n=1,000$, $\beta =0.05$, and $\delta =0.025$.Note: The power curves for the AR test, the two-stage test with BACVs, and the shrinkage test with BACVs with $\tau =$ 0.5 and 0.25 are illustrated by the curves in pink, green, red, and blue, respectively.

Figure 8

Figure 8 Power of tests under clustering with $\phi =10$, $n=1,000$, $\beta =0.05$, and $\delta =0.025$.Note: The power curves for the AR test, the two-stage test with BACVs, and the shrinkage test with BACVs with $\tau =$ 0.5 and 0.25 are illustrated by the curves in pink, green, red, and blue, respectively.

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