For better or worse, historians have found it useful to organize the past into a series of epochs, often punctuated by wars; the “long nineteenth century” (1789–1914) and the interwar years, for example, have been the focus of substantial bodies of research. The 1990s, which began with the end of the Cold War, and, one might argue, ended with the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, may prove to be another epoch that attracts the interest of historians. Especially from the vantage point of the United States, those were heady years of robust economic growth, optimistic projections of the emergence of a “new economy,” enormous increases in stock prices, and an acceleration of worldwide economic integration, to name just a few of the remarkable developments of the decade.
Although dramatic, and often regarded by contemporary observers as revolutionary or unprecedented, many of the developments of the 1990s bear some resemblance to those of earlier periods. Globalization, after all, was quite extensive at the beginning of the twentieth century, and episodes of rapid technological progress and productivity growth were experienced in the 1920s and 1930s in the United States. The historical significance of the 1990s, and to what extent this decade ushered in a truly new era, is open to question. The essays in this volume address this question as only economic historians can: by analyzing the developments of the 1990s in their historical context, and exploring the parallels between the 1990s and earlier eras.
Edited by Paul W. Rhode and Gianni Toniolo, the chapters in this volume were written by many excellent economic historians, including several leading experts on the topics taken up in the book. Focusing on the United States, the chapters analyze many of the most prominent developments of the 1990s, such as productivity growth and technological change, asset bubbles and macroeconomic conditions, globalization and economic integration, and social and political change. All are of quite general interest.
Several of the chapters find interesting parallels between the experiences of the U.S. economy in the 1920s and the 1990s. Robert J. Gordon's chapter, for example, documents some remarkable similarities in macroeconomic conditions between the two decades. Growth in GDP, employment, and productivity were nearly identical in the 1920s and 1990s, and low inflation was enjoyed in both decades as well. There was also a boom in the stock market in both the '20s and the '90s, of course, and Eugene N. White's chapter discusses the difficulties entailed in assessing whether or not these episodes were “bubbles.” He examines the response of the Federal Reserve to both episodes, in light of the uncertainty surrounding the extent to which the booms were driven by improved fundamentals. The Fed has been blamed for fueling both booms, but White's discussion highlights the difficulty in ascertaining the appropriate monetary policy response to asset price inflation.
Several chapters examine productivity growth and technical change in the United States in the 1990s, and again, comparisons between the '20s and the '90s are found to be instructive. Alexander J. Field's chapter focuses on multifactor productivity growth, and shows that it was lower, and more concentrated in particular sectors, in the 1990s compared to the 1920s and 1930s. The sectors within which the productivity gains of the 1990s were concentrated are the focus of Peter L. Rousseau's chapter, which compares the gains related to the adoption of information technologies in the 1990s to those resulting from electrification in the earlier part of the century. Gavin Wright's chapter describes the history of productivity growth and wage changes over the twentieth century, and presents a provocative argument about the causal effects of rising wages on productivity. In general, these chapters present an interesting spectrum of opinion on the sources of productivity growth in the 1990s.
The process of globalization in the 1990s is discussed in chapters by Barry Eichengreen, Nicholas Crafts, and Riccardo Faini. Eichengreen's chapter presents a detailed discussion of the extent of world trade and financial flows in the 1990s, in an effort to determine how distinctive the 1990s really were. Although by most measures, globalization was more extensive in the 1990s than in earlier decades, Eichengreen argues persuasively that the growth in international transactions of that period was a continuation of processes under way for some time. Crafts's chapter documents the growth experiences of the different regions of the world in the 1990s, and compares them to their long-run histories. Although he documents the striking progress made by China and India during the decade, Crafts's main conclusion is that globalization has failed to facilitate progress in catch-up or convergence within the developing world. Faini's chapter evaluates the growth experience of Europe in the 1990s, the decade in which it made significant progress towards greater integration. Contrary to popular wisdom, Faini concludes that there is little evidence of a relative economic decline in Europe.
Finally, there are chapters on social and political developments written by Peter Temin, Peter H. Lindert, and Michael A. Bernstein. Temin's chapter views the 1990s as a postwar decade, and compares the experiences of that decade to those of earlier postwar episodes. In his chapter, Lindert documents that the welfare state is not in retreat among OECD countries, and moreover argues that there is likely to be “convergence in the shares spent on social transfers and public education in the rest of the world,” meaning that new welfare states will likely emerge in the developing world. Finally, Bernstein's chapter surveys the moves toward deregulation and lower taxes in the United States in the 1990s, and assesses their consequences.
The range of questions relevant to the topic of this book is quite broad, and one might quibble with some of the decisions of the editors regarding the focus of the volume. There is probably too little discussion of the growth of China and India, Japan's long economic slump, and the financial crises of East Asia and Latin America, all important developments that shaped the world economy 1990s. It is perhaps unfair to expect a volume such as this to be comprehensive, however, and in any case the emphasis on the United States provides greater analytical depth.
It is, of course, too early to understand the impact of the 1990s definitively. But the essays in this volume offer interesting and in some cases surprising insights into the historical significance of the decade. And because they present a historical analysis of recent economic events, the essays in this volume might prove useful as additions to the syllabus of undergraduate courses on subjects such as macroeconomics or international economics.
