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Maximum heart rate prediction in children: are maximal heart rate prediction equations suitable for use in paediatric clinical practice?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 September 2026

Catherine Renwick*
Affiliation:
Royal Brompton & Harefield Hospitals, Guys and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK Institute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, UK NIHR, London, UK
Mark Ogden
Affiliation:
Royal Brompton & Harefield Hospitals, Guys and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
Monica Ramos
Affiliation:
Royal Brompton & Harefield Hospitals, Guys and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
Oliver Williams
Affiliation:
Cleveland Clinic London Ltd, UK
Gabrielle Norrish
Affiliation:
Institute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, UK Inherited Cardiovascular Disease Service, Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children, UK
Jan Till
Affiliation:
Royal Brompton & Harefield Hospitals, Guys and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
James Ware
Affiliation:
Royal Brompton & Harefield Hospitals, Guys and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK National Heart Lung Institute, Imperial College London, UK
Juan Pablo Kaski
Affiliation:
Institute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, UK Inherited Cardiovascular Disease Service, Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children, UK
*
Corresponding author: Catherine Renwick; Email: crenwick2@nhs.net
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Abstract

Aims:

Assessment of maximal heart rate is used in clinical practice to determine the degree of beta-blockade during exercise and periods of adrenergic stress. When direct measurement is not possible, indirect methods utilising heart rate prediction equations are commonly used, but their validity in children has been challenged.

Methods:

Retrospective data on 109 healthy children (male 63, 58%; mean age 11.00 ± 3.09) undergoing routine exercise testing were analysed. Measured maximal heart rate was compared with estimates obtained from twenty-two prediction equations.

Results:

All prediction equations overestimated maximal heart rate in males. In females, two equations underpredicted (Fairbarn and Heinzmann-Filho et al.), whilst the remaining equations overpredicted. The equations that predicted most accurately differed between males (Fairbarn) and females (Whyte (males). The prediction equation used commonly in clinical practice, Fox (220-age), overestimated significantly in males and females (p = < 0.001). A moderate positive correlation with age and maximal heart rate was seen in males only (r = 0.3195, p = 0.0107).

Conclusions:

This study shows that adult age regression equations do not accurately predict childhood maximal heart rate as determined by exercise testing. An inability to accurately predict maximal heart rate could have important implications for both childhood exercise prescription and the safe monitoring of pharmacological therapy that limits exertional heart rate response in children with inherited arrhythmic syndromes. In the absence of direct measurement of maximal heart rate, alternative paediatric-specific prediction methods should be developed to ensure appropriate estimation of childhood maximal heart rate.

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Table 1. HRmax prediction equationsTable 1 long description.

Figure 1

Table 2. Characteristics, ETT length, and HRmax of participantsTable 2 long description.

Figure 2

Figure 1. Figure 1 long description.(a) Males demonstrated a positive correlation with increasing age and length of ETT, whereas no significant correlation was seen in females. Alt text: Scatter plot illustrating the association between the length of ETT and age of males (blue dots) and females (red dots). (b) A moderate positive correlation between heart rate and length of ETT was demonstrated for both males and females. Alt text: Scatter plot illustrating the relationship between HRmax and the length of ETT for males (blue dots) and females (red dots). (c) Males demonstrated a moderate positive correlation between HRmax and increasing age, whereas no significant correlation was seen in females. Alt text: Scatter plot illustrating the relationship between HRmax and age for males (blue dots) and females (red dots). ETT = exercise tolerance test; HRmax = maximal heart rate.

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