Writing these annual issues – each a combination of a special topic treated in depth, and a more wide-ranging review – can never have been easy, but 2008 has presented more challenges than most. And readers, more aware of recent recessional trends and the volatility of oil and food prices in the world economy than the authors could have been for and shortly after the High-Level Conference on World Food Security in June 2008, a certain amount of interpretation is now necessary. However, as usual, SOFA 2008 offers an authoritative survey of its chosen topic, as well as a helpful analysis of the factors leading to, and beyond, the current situation.

Seven chapters in the first 100 pages deal with biofuels, including their technologies, policies, markets, and impacts on the environment and on food poverty/security. Liquid biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) are still marginal contributors to energy supply (c. 1% of transport fuels), but further expansion would have a significant effect on global agricultural markets. Less problematic second-generation biofuels are still under development, with unknown commercial potential. To date, policies supporting biofuels (subsidies, incorporation requirements, tax incentives and tariffs) have been expensive, distortionary and discriminatory (much like the longstanding food policies they now supplement). However, they are now coming under increased political scrutiny, albeit more in terms of their overall environmental (rather than economic) effects. These effects vary widely by country and feedstock, but operate mainly via impacts on land and water use, rather than greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By pushing up food prices, biofuel production, alongside other factors such as poor harvests, has had an adverse effect on net food-importing developing countries, and particularly on low-income households, both urban and rural. In the longer term, small farmers and others may benefit from this new market, but only if appropriate infrastructure and technology is provided by public and private investment, and if governments adopt appropriate policies. The overall lesson is that considerably more research and development is necessary – again in both private and public sectors – to find and analyse policy options that can guide the emerging fuel chain through the many constraints and problems that surround it.

The 15-page review covers recent and future (to 2010) developments in mainstream food production and prices, much of the latter in terms of sensitivities as regards biofuel feedstock use, oil prices, GDP growth and crop yields. The combination of underlying supply and demand factors, and uncertainties surrounding biofuels, climate change and international trade, point to generally higher and more volatile farm product prices than were indicated by the 30-year trends before 2005, and the need to pursue food and income security – especially for the poorest people of the world – via appropriate and sustainable policies and research.