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The Fall of Assad and the Geography of Refugee Return in Syria

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 September 2026

Ibrahim Alkaseer
Ibrahim Alkaseer*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Richmond , United States
*
Email: ibrahim.alkaseer@richmond.edu
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Abstract

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Information

Type
Middle East Studies in Action
Information
Review of Middle East Studies , Volume 60 , Issue 1 , June 2026 , pp. 88
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Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Middle East Studies Association of North America

Figure 1
A research poster titled The Fall of Assad and the Geography of Refugee Return in Syria. It features three choropleth maps of Syria showing return indices by sub-district. See long description.
Figure 1 Long description

The poster is organized into three columns.

Header: The title is centered at the top in white text on a green background, identifying Ibrahim Alkaseer from the University of Richmond. Logos for the Middle East Studies Association and the University of Richmond are in the top corners.

Left Column:

- Abstract: Discusses how the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024 reshaped territorial control and refugee return patterns.

- Theory: Focuses on how perceptions of safety and authority influence movement.

- Research Question: Asks how the regime collapse reshaped return patterns.

- Hypotheses: Lists four points regarding increased returns in H T S and S N A governed areas versus S D F held areas.

- Methodology: Details data from U N H C R, Carter Center, and C B S 2004 Census. It includes an equation for Return Index R I equals open parenthesis Returnees post all over 5 minus Returnees pre all over 11 close parenthesis all over Total Population 2004.

Center and Right Columns (Results):

- Figure 1: Return Index After December 2024. A map of Syria with sub-districts colored from red (decline) to dark green (sharp increase). High return areas are concentrated in the Northwest (Idlib, Afrin) and Southwest (near the Lebanese border).

- Figure 2: Return Index and Governance Type. Similar to Figure 1 but outlines S D F controlled areas, showing mixed patterns in the Northeast.

- Figure 3: Male Return Index. Shows gendered return patterns, with increases along the Lebanese border and declines in Raqqa.

Bottom Right Column:

- Discussion / Conclusions: Key findings state that returns were highly localized. Interpretation suggests local governance capacity shaped patterns more than the regime collapse itself.

- Acknowledgements: Credits Dr. Sandra Joireman and Dr. Kyle Redican.

- A Q R code for references is in the bottom right corner.

Figure 0

Figure 1 Figure 1 long description.