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Association between impaired glucose metabolism and long-term prognosis at the time of diagnosis of depression: Impaired glucose metabolism as a promising biomarker proposed through a machine-learning approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 February 2023

Dong Yun Lee
Affiliation:
Department of Biomedical Informatics, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
Yong Hyuk Cho
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea Department of Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Ajou University, Suwon, South Korea
Myoungsuk Kim
Affiliation:
Data Science Team, Evidnet Co Ltd, Pangyo, Korea
Chang-Won Jeong
Affiliation:
Medical Convergence Research Center, Wonkwang University, Iksan, Korea
Jae Myung Cha
Affiliation:
Department of Gastroenterology, Gang Dong Kyung Hee University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
Geun Hui Won
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Catholic University of Daegu School of Medicine, Daegu, Korea
Jai Sung Noh
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
Sang Joon Son*
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
Rae Woong Park*
Affiliation:
Department of Biomedical Informatics, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
*
*Authors for correspondence: Sang Joon Son, Rae Woong Park, E-mails: sjsonpsy@ajou.ac.kr; veritas@ajou.ac.kr
*Authors for correspondence: Sang Joon Son, Rae Woong Park, E-mails: sjsonpsy@ajou.ac.kr; veritas@ajou.ac.kr

Abstract

Background

Predicting the course of depression is necessary for personalized treatment. Impaired glucose metabolism (IGM) was introduced as a promising depression biomarker, but no consensus was made. This study aimed to predict IGM at the time of depression diagnosis and examine the relationship between long-term prognosis and predicted results.

Methods

Clinical data were extracted from four electronic health records in South Korea. The study population included patients with depression, and the outcome was IGM within 1 year. One database was used to develop the model using three algorithms. External validation was performed using the best algorithm across the three databases. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to determine the model’s performance. Kaplan–Meier and Cox survival analyses of the risk of hospitalization for depression as the long-term outcome were performed. A meta-analysis of the long-term outcome was performed across the four databases.

Results

A prediction model was developed using the data of 3,668 people, with an AUC of 0.781 with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression. In the external validation, the AUCs were 0.643, 0.610, and 0.515. Through the predicted results, survival analysis and meta-analysis were performed; the hazard ratios of risk of hospitalization for depression in patients predicted to have IGM was 1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.41, p = 0.027) at a 3-year follow-up.

Conclusions

We developed prediction models for IGM occurrence within a year. The predicted results were related to the long-term prognosis of depression, presenting as a promising IGM biomarker related to the prognosis of depression.

Information

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the European Psychiatric Association
Figure 0

Table 1. Baseline characteristics for study population with or without IGM in AUSOM.

Figure 1

Figure 1. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of models predicting impaired glucose metabolism. (A) ROC curve for the models according to algorithms. (B) ROC curve for internal and external validations. The performance of the models using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is compared.

Figure 2

Table 2. Top 10 important predictors of the prediction models for impaired glucose metabolism.

Figure 3

Figure 2. Kaplan–Meier curves in the stratified survival analysis. (A) Impaired glucose metabolism in the internal validation dataset of AUSOM. (B) Long-term outcome for the 3-year follow-up in the overall cohort of AUSOM.

Figure 4

Figure 3. Risk of long-term outcome in 3 years in patients predicted by the machine-learning model to have IGM within 1 year.

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