In the early 1990s, one of the most eminent scholars of the realist analytical tradition gloomily noted that NATO’s remaining days might not have been numbered but that the years in which the alliance would continue to play a meaningful security role probably were. Predicting the future course of world politics is a recurring concern of contending approaches to the study of international relations. Identifying the issues that matter most and speculating about the future direction of one of the most enduring and successful alliances in international politics is a reflection of this concern. While world politics often surprise rationalist scholarship with conducts deemed irrational by mainstream approaches, and with reflectivist social dynamics that cannot always be expected or are not necessarily predictable, alliance theory attempts to identify the variables driving security cooperation between states. Nonetheless, scholarship about the continued relevance and change of alliances has been mostly empirically focused. This collaborative volume, which addresses the very fundamental issues that have been shaping the transatlantic alliance since the Cold War’s end, is no exception. Nonetheless, its authors provide stimulating reflections and poignant insights into the dynamics that have affected and are likely to affect NATO’s trajectory.

The Future of NATO, which was conceived before the Newport summit of the Alliance in 2014, is the result of a joint cooperative effort between the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies and the Institute for Political Science at the University of Oslo. Its publication coincided with a significant reshaping for NATO: The Alliance was winding down its military operation in Afghanistan, and Russia had proceeded with the annexation of Crimea. The volume includes a collection of essays that carefully blend together historical reflections with strategic analyses. It also provides an evaluation of future dynamics that are likely to shape NATO’s course, which is now more uncertain than ever. The unifying theme appears to be the Alliance's difficulty in identifying a coherent and unified response to a set of variegated and often asymmetric challenges. In the post–Cold War era, member states endeavored to balance perceptions of their national interests, which were not always converging or reconcilable with one another, with alliance solidarity and liberal multilateralism.

In the present strategic scenario, NATO’s current role raises as many questions as it answers. Will the Alliance’s new emphasis on its original functions and territorial defense provide new vitality to an institution that appears worn out after two decades of extenuating expeditionary missions? Does the Alliance’s decision to return to Europe further exacerbate relations with Russia at a time when Moscow’s activism grows and the Kremlin remains an important partner in efforts toward the establishment of a stable security architecture in Europe? To what extent will the U.S. pivot to Asia impact Washington’s choices in Europe and its commitment to defend the territorial integrity of all NATO members? Finally, will the European countries be willing to make the necessary sacrifices and increase their defense budgets to resolve long-lasting—and highly divisive—disputes about “burden sharing” with Washington and to take a more proactive security role? The volume aims to provide an answer to these complex questions.

The editors offer a set of empirically based essays that will undoubtedly stimulate discussion on these themes. The contributing authors debate the diverse challenges that the Alliance has faced and is about to confront as its military operation in Afghanistan winds down, many of its European members continue to implement massive defense cuts, and the United States gradually repositions toward Asia or embraces a more isolationist posture in international affairs. Contributors concur that extenuating and dispendious out-of-area commitments, the emergence of new challenges, deteriorating relations with Russia, and the ever-present threat of terrorism have raised questions about NATO’s ability to remain the only security provider for Europe and the transatlantic region.

A fundamental question this volume asks is how the Alliance should balance its regional priorities with the global ambitions of its most powerful member states and of some of NATO’s planners. This tension is a core theme of this work and a fundamental challenge for an Alliance that has been struggling to strike the right balance between in-area and out-of-area engagements. In the opening chapter, Helge Danielsen and Helene Wideberg provide a useful exploration of the origins of this debate and of the out-of-area question in historical perspective. They emphasize how efforts to integrate out-of-area commitments with closer attention to the core area of territorial defense have often been problematic, undermining internal cohesion and fueling mutual recrimination between the two sides of the Atlantic. Secondly, Svein Melby debates NATO’s ongoing relevance for the United States, stressing how Washington without the Alliance might find it more difficult to protect its dominant role in world politics. Third, Derek Averre questions how NATO should deal with Russia, emphasizing how the NATO–Russia Council (NRC), which was established in the early 2000s, has failed to overcome long-standing hurdles and prevent a dramatic crisis in mutual relations despite holding a lot of promise. He concludes that an authentic willingness to engage Russia in facing global challenges might mitigate Moscow’s sense of exclusion and benefit NATO’s prospects.

Other significant contributions are Janne Haaland Matlary’s discussion of the importance of burden sharing and of Europe’s uncertain role in security issues after the Afghan experience and Helga Haftendorn’s reflection on deterrence. Haftendorn emphasises how NATO has attempted to construct new means and strategies of protection for assisting member states with relatively new threats, such as terrorism and attacks in space and in the cyber-world. Nonetheless, her conclusion is that the Alliance’s preferred strategy remains one of deterrence by denial, rather than by punishment. Subsequently, Sten Rynning provides a critical analysis of NATO’s comprehensive approach. He emphasizes how NATO’s performances have been plagued by overstretching and frustration. More specifically, the Alliance has been struggling to connect campaign objectives and available resources. Its difficult post–Cold War trajectory almost resembles the fatigues of an Odysseus, who is returning home after having been exhausted by a sapping and faraway campaign.

The next chapter by Paal Sigurd Hilde focuses on the peculiarity of NATO’s institutional structure. The author emphasizes that in the current scenario, NATO runs the risk of turning into a traditional alliance, where organizational strength gives way to cost-cutting concerns. Such a trend would probably further undercut transatlantic unity as well as NATO’s liberal-democratic character. The debate between in- and out-of-area engagements has also shaped the rocky path of the NATO Response Force and reflects the difficulties and limits of transatlantic ambitions, as it emerges in the chapter by Jens Ringsmose. In the conclusions Andrew Michta provides another useful reminder that NATO remains central for Western security and for the defense of the liberal international order that was established at the end of World War II.

This volume’s authors concur that the Alliance continues to be fundamental for Washington to build political consensus and win multilateral support. It also provides an articulated response against a mixture of territorial and global threats. NATO’s survival—and the well-being of the West—will depend on its ongoing ability to build consensus among the allies, preserve multilateral capabilities, and strike a balance between acting locally and intervening globally. In other words, to secure its ongoing significance, the Alliance will need to steer a path between its common defense and crisis-management missions. In the near future, NATO will not return to its Cold War outlook; the Alliance will be expected to continue engaging in crisis-management operations outside of its member states’ territory. In addition to this, the U.S. geopolitical concern for dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region will not go away.

Nonetheless, the contributors to this volume do not distinguish analytically between the different levels of changes underway in the international system, the impact of which have shaped and will continue to shape NATO’s trajectory, and the changes that can be argued to be a function of each other. By contrast, they provide a useful, but fundamentally empirically based, set of reflections.